(Crazy ?) Thoughts .... Some of you have read that I have been racking my brain trying to figure out who and why would someone be 'stepping down' every day LMNL share prices from $11-12 on October 2 to $4.85 (today's and all time low) . Here are some of my (crazy?) thoughts :
1- The 'They' who has the capability of doing so wIth a company with such low float (approx 3.2 million shares float) and wants to acquire/accumulate the shares at a low price (I think there are better speculative shares with much bigger float if 'they' wanted to profit from 'shorting', plus as someone here has mentioned most banks are not allowing shorting on LMNL , mind you there are 0.95% of the float shows as 'short') .
2- Let's assume that 'they' are an institution(s) who wants LMNL shares but knows that 85% of the shares are already held by institutions (TV and Consonance) and will not 'sell' until the price is 'right'/pending FDA approval.
I 'assume' the above because of the 'spike' caused during the 2 or 3 days when volume was above 1million shares (so we know 'they' tried and realize they have bought those shares at much higher prices than TV and Consonance did).
Date Closing Volume Open High Low
| 01-Jul-20 | $ 22.79 | 1,492,150 | $ 12.44 | $ 31.45 | $ 11.50 |
| 30-Jul-20 | $ 23.79 | 2,597,770 | $ 12.00 | $ 24.56 | $ 11.26 |
| 24-Aug-20 | $ 13.59 | 1,889,294 | $ 20.00 | $ 12.35 | $ 20.20 |
Now I am also guessing that the investors who
sold their shares during the first 2 spikes are the 'retail' investors who until then were the 'only ones' trading LMNL shares (average daily volume was less than 40,000 shares). I know I was one of them who sold
most (unfortunately not all) of my holdings during the first 2 spikes.
Having acquired the shares at say, USD20 (on average). 'they' now have to lower their 'average' costs to be at least as low or lower than TV and Consonance (at cost of USD11-12). To do so, 'they' need to buy at least their purchased volume shares they acquired during the 2-3 spike days down to around USD4-5.
3 - This is why I find it amazing how they found a way to do that (algo or not) without 'spiking' volume but slowly raising daily volume to more than 500,000 shares volume, the last few days. The activities of shares purchased/sold were in 50 to a few hundred shares all the time at 'lower' prices.
My other assumption now is 'they' did so by selling very small volume to 'themselves' (different entities) and then 'acquiring' the rest from 'remaining' retail investors. Here I assume the 'retail' investors were no longer much of the old PLI Investors , since most of those would have sold on the 2 spike days (esp those who bought the rights issue) and the remaining 'old PLI Investors who did not buy the rights issue and have not sold yet (ie they already suffered a 95+ % loss) had very few shares.
4- By selling to themselves small lots, they do not suffer 'losses' from the high puchase prices 'they' bought in those 2 spike days but buys as many 'weak' shares that are put in the market from the retail investors who has 'stop loss' or wants 'tax loss' , or simply have given up (or worry their shares will go to close to zero , again?)
5- By doing step down EVERY DAY, 'they' managed to drop the share price to a low of USD4.85 today
6 - Once 'they' have achieved their objectives to purchase as many LMNL shares at much lower prices, 'they' then can wait until the PDUFA date of March 5, 2021 or before to benefit from the FDA approval. (I am guessing here that 'They' wanted LMNL shares, because they assume/expect a FDA approval, in the next 4 months at which time they will 'unload' their shares at 5x-10x current share price or 3x-5x times their 'average' price/cost)
Anyway, however crazy they are, these are just based on my thoughts and conclusion.
Here is hoping we have reached the bottom and close to the bottom today.
My bids at USD5.00 today was only partially filled so far. (We still have 10 mins left though).