Post by
ekim on Mar 06, 2017 12:03pm
numbers game
It is all about a numbers game.
Going to a PFS and trying to convert to indicated is costly and may not change the economics.
Talking the pro-economic items and doing an updated PEA is a lot less costly and will absolutely show a change in the economics. Original plan would have excluded CH-7 from PFS...this new PEA will include all that.
Talking numbers?
I could easily see Open pit costs shrink from $95 to $85 per tonne and then add on another 20 to 30 $$'s for underground costs, you end up with:
$85 per tonne - open pit operating cost
$110 per tonne - underground operating cost.
That new tonnage from 260m to 500m will have a cash profit of about CAD$500 per tonne.
Add another 5 million tonnes to the mine plan from that underground and you have added CAD$2.5 billion to the cash flow side of the PEA equation.
"The results of this study are excellent and have significantly changed the specifics for the 2017 work program."
IMO, we will clearly see a PEA with an after tax and discounted NPV of CAD$1 billion...maybe even higher.
LONG....PGD
EKIM
Comment by
mill44 on Mar 06, 2017 12:45pm
Interested parties had access to a lot of information during the discussions. If their beef with the deal was the price, they might use the wait to gain a foothold in this before they begin another negotiation. Let's see what the next while will be, more of the same waiting or an opportunity.
Comment by
ekim on Mar 06, 2017 1:15pm
The increment from PEA #1 to PEA #2 in terms of NPV is not a trivial amount. Based on the last 5 years of PEA...it may be #1 in terms of incremental value. Let's finally put that Feb 2015 price book to rest too. LONG...PGD EKIM
Comment by
mill44 on Mar 06, 2017 1:25pm
Like I said it last year and the year before, only hold this if you can give yourself a reasonble timeframe and margin to keep up if you have to. No one wins if you listen to BS like imminent deals, bidding wars, train leaving and so on.