Plateau Energy Metals Inc. PLUUF

Crazy tin foil hat theory

[Y93H1979]

Now before I post my thoughts, please please please please do NOT base any investment decisions on my following far out theories. These are my THOUGHTS only. I've accumulated a position in PLU based on my own DD of the facts and in my previous posts I have always sought to encourage others to do the same. 

So, onto my conspiracy theories...

Ever since the press conference with the government officials present, I've thought something was brewing. A lot of info was brought up in that presser that was not yet officially released to the market. Dr Stefan was making some REALLY forward looking statements. Then the president of Peru makes some comments about Li and U regulations in the next 6 months, which were obviously in reference to PLU. When does a president ever mention a microcap junior mining company? What reason could he possibly have to do so? This just further confrimed to me that someting was going on under the surface... But what?

I got to thinking about the timing of that press conference. It was just after the metullurgical testing results came back from ANSTO. This to me was always the key to the Li project. No pure lithium, no project. The fact they got 99.7% purity (on a first pass test) was HUGE. This makes all the difference to a Li project. On a side note, I think the Li market could be similar to the Fe ore boom last decade -  big runup in price leads to a bubble in the juniors followed by (possible) oversupply, mainly of lower grade (58%) product, while the higher grade (67%) fetches a considerable premium. But I digress. The 99.7% grade (without refining!) must have caught the eye of some majors. 

So knowing this, Dr Stefan does the press conference.

As something brews, the one uncertainty is the Li permitting regulations in Peru. Knowing a major is sniffing around (SQM anyone?), a company which could potentiall bring in a large investment in a short amount of time the government gets involved, with the president making the Li / U statement. 

If I were a big Li producing company, making all my Li from brines (with the problematic issue of increased royalties in the Ataccama)and which requires further refining for battery production, and with a complicated process to produce hydroxide, I would be wanting to diversify into hard rock, which offers the advantages of faster production to market and the more accessible option of producing hydroxide, which is going to be the big growth story in battery chem. Not to mention it is more easily scaleable than brine production. 

Then just last week, SQM sells its stake in LACs brine project. Maybe just coincidence.

Then the price of PLU gets hammered. Maybe someone with a vested interest trying to keep a lid on SP? And the lack of buying from Disbrow and Relling? These guys have been relentlessly buying since the Li discovery. But nothign lately? After all the good news?

Then the announcement yesterday about the new CEO. Initially they had stated they were looking to bring in someone with processing experience as they moved from exploration to development. Now we find out they've brought in an investment banker
https://canada.businesschief.com/True-Gold-Mining/executives/Alex-Holmes/98
M&A was mentioned twice in that short bio.

So obviously PLU is looking to a buyout of the Li project. But to who? As I mentioned at the top, this is FICTION, that I've concocted based on what I've seen. I thought I'd discuss it with fellow PLU'ers. What do you think? Tin foil had off.

I would personally welcome a takeover of the Li project(at the right price!). The Li market is hot, better to sell while there are buyers and let someone else raise the capital and take on the operational risk. I doubt a Li producer would want the U project though... So spin that out please. Iron ore companies were at their peak during the boom, and they haven't regained their prices since those days. Timing is everything in the resources business, something Ian Stalker knows well.

[KingKyle]

It’s not bad to speculate and even dream...should takeover occur what is PLU’s value. For peer comparison, LIX bought out for $2.6M with 2.0M Ton of LiCo deposit...that’s about 130x multiple to deposit. PLU had drilled 20% of area and accounted 2.5M Tons deposit which could then bring total size to 8-10M Ton. You are looking at $1-1.3B of deposit value at same multiple. Equate to $14 to 18/share

[juanPeru]

Thank you for your clear-headed insights. In particular, I found your comparison between the Fe ore market and the current Li market quite clever. I'd really like to know what the following information implies for your whole argument: El lago de litio https://www.energiminas.com/el-lago-de-litio/ Peru albergaria el deposito de litio mas grande del undo. EL MONSTRUO DE DOS CABEZAS. https

[KingKyle]

Good discussion points. Would not be surprised with Li spin off first  to exrract maximum value. New CEO could lead that. Remember Ian Stalker orchestrated the Uramin Areva buyout in 2007. With high grade uranium deposit and low cost structure, he could do another M&A or go to production in 2-3 years in time for sector rebound. That would be best case scenario for PLU precious assets

[Y93H1979]

Thanks for linking those articles Juan, very interesting indeed! I like the first one, a lot of info there. 25 companies having expressed interest is intriguing if indeed it is true! I agree with you about the PEA. It has to be done ASAP, but I think a lot of people will already have a pretty good idea about the numbers. We already know a rough strip ratio, and the sulphuric acid consumption. If

[kkkrrr]

the problem is..maybe nobody needs Lithium in 10 or 15 year ..new types of batteries without lithium will come ....    i think thats why LAC SP is lagging and why SQM is selling their share in LAC's brine

[juanPeru]

Totally agree with you. In this region of the world relations with communities are much much much more important than any paintings no matter how ancient or "valuable" they are. The fact that the company has waited for years to access Chacaconiza speaks loud about the seriousness with which PLU is approaching these affairs. Indeed, Dr. Solis looks like a comunero himself, so he might be

[Austrian007]

Interesting thoughts.. 1. This would be the equivalent of super high grade Fe... so it will always attract buyers as well good margins even at the bottom of the cycle... So there should be no compulsive need to sell unlike those brine guys who are not sure if they would be making profits a few years down the line..The max value on selling that PLU can hope to get at this point would be about USD

[KingKyle]

this has the makings of another AZ with different twist but similar in size...$2B if taken over..we can dream.