GREY:PTQMF - Post by User
Comment by
dr_airtimeon Feb 14, 2013 1:24am
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Post# 20986096
RE: Comments on the share price
RE: Comments on the share price
FWIW, I don't think any institutions will be buying without confirmation of an Inmet deal or the Red Kite loan closed due to the shape of our balance sheet. If you can get past this, either of those two events will clean up our current ratio which is the giant red flag waving in the fund manager's face. I don't think we are going to launch to next level until one of these events is secured, but either of them should be highly positive. By memory, I think PTQ's working capital was close to negative $40 million with the A/P balance at $40 million (though offset by other accounts) this is not insignificant and has been the only "what if" that has kept me from buying more in the .50's and I am just a small retailer. Those were q3 numbers I was talking.
On the positive side, we have two catalysts and either of them should put us back into . 60's.
Long like the rest of us here, but just putting things into perspective to plan any further buying opportunities. Yes we are cheap, but cheap for a reason. If we get the Red Kite loan then the appropriate way to start thinking about PTQ is Enterprise Value - so add $140M for the Red Kite loan. We have a $108M MC now so I would say a double is possible right now in 2013 from $108M to $216M which would put us at a $356M EV. This is right around where Timmins, Mandalay, and Brigus are trading who are all ~100k/year producers, but have a big head start on shareholdings by institutions and proven operating fundamentals over at least a couple quarters (Mandalay and Brigus only) I can't see how Gold will not break out past $1650 in 2013 so that makes a third force destined to push us higher.
I can't see how anyone cannot see that we have Inmet by the tail so I think the announcement of a deal could put us $.10 higher on that news alone.