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Despite Hawk Circling Wall St., Traders Eye Good Seasonality

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https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/despite-the-hawk-circling-wall-streets-traders-are-ready-to-go-16111292
 
Despite the Hawk Circling Wall St., Traders Eye Good Seasonality
 
Investors are chomping at the bit to create some positive seasonality -- so let's see what happens as the Fed news is digested.
 
By JAMES "REV SHARK" DEPORRE
 
December 14, 2022 | 04:30 PM EST
 
The Fed raised interest rates by a half-percentage point, as we highly anticipated, but the headline was that the Fed did not waver in its hawkishness. The market dropped on news that the Fed was likely to raise rates higher than previously expected and keep them there longer than anticipated. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been indicating this for a while, but the Fed announcement Wednesday helped to solidify that likelihood.
 
Despite the clear Fed hawkishness, the market response was muted. Many investors just don't believe that the Fed is going to stay as hawkish as it's telegraphing, as the lag effect of all the rate hikes that have already occurred starts to hurt the economy.
 
Powell did talk about the strength in wages and jobs, which I discussed this morning. The main source of inflation pressures isn't CPI but a shortage of labor. Powell even commented that there might be structural reasons for a chronic shortage of workers.
 
The Fed is going to stay hawkish for a while, but the news is out, and we don't have another Fed interest rate decision until Feb. 1.
 
The big issue now is whether the market can digest this news and compose itself for some favorable action by the end of the year. We have quadruple witching on Friday that will create some movement, but traders are chomping at the bit to create some positive seasonality. Seasonality is a tendency and not a certainty, but it can be self-fulling when conditions are good.
 
I'm optimistic that we will have some better trading in individual stocks now that we have some major macroeconomic news behind us, but I expect elevated volatility to make things challenging.
 
Have a good evening. I'll see you tomorrow.