RE:Took some lumps on this.dosperros wrote:
I took a few good hits on this; perhaps 30% losses in total. I'd bought 'all-in' after the first takeover news. That was dumb, but I largely made those up in re-buying TMB. It was FX related too -- that was a good lesson to learn.
The next was a larger % loss on a smaller bundle of dollars as this walked down to $14. I'm all out, now. I fully see the potential, but I'll strike much like I did when I watched TMB for a decade -- watch just how awful things can get, and just how inept the management can be. Then, we randomly double our EBITDA and it's off to the races. I'm not sure this will be that simple of course, but I'll wait until I see the $100 to $120 M per Q before buying back in. With any luck that might even happen at a higher CAD.
In the meantime, some other stocks I watch turned the corner: IFP and WEF. They have about 78% and 30% upsides if the current Q earnings are extrapolated annually (viable I think) and they multiples move to 7.0 (from the 5ish range). I also like a Canadian legend, Norbord, even though I am lost as it's no longer a value play as it's fully valued by any objective measure. But it's the torch-bearer of the US housing recovery and now pays a sick div so why the heck not.
I also hold some CFX, CFP, and a small dose of WFT and RFP. In aggregate, i am planning to bag between 50% and 100% in the next 2 years on this -- by then, maybe RYAM will be turning around. I'd love to buy RYAM for $10 at a 90 cent dollar, because it's then nearly a 5 bagger (I am in agreement with Alpha on the upside, but I reiterate that swimming against the current is exhausting and expensive.) Keynes like about the market staying irrational longer than we can stay solvent rings a bell.
It's good to be fully out of RYAM. I don't want to get bit for a third time on this, so I'll be very careful in re-deploying into it. The sheer hit on my TMB gains I took thru transaction costs and losses (selling TMB, buying RYAM, selling RYAM, re-buying TMB, buying some RYAM after the Oaktree thing, selling RYAM) is nuts and I lost on most transactions. I basically made mby $1.70 TMB cost base effectively $2.10 which was dumb. Oh well, we live and learn.
Good luck, and hope I'm wrong for you guys who are staying in. Let me know what you think of the bundle I'm moving into if you get aorund to investigating.
I was a similar story, sold out of TMB, bought RYAM (but waited for pullback to $15), Sold RYAM (at $15.86), and rebought TMB..... The gains I made on the RYAM shareprice increase was lost by the FX arbitrage, but in the end I am close to even on the swing trading. I still hold TMB, but now have to wait for the conversion to fully capitalize. 60+% of my TMB shares are coming to me at $4.75 cash. So until then, I wait.
I have been watching RYAM on the side and made the decision to wait for financials of both companies before making any decisions.... well the TMB financials looked great, but there has been no movement (likely waiting for actual merger). And RYAM looked decent as well, but market is punishing the stock. The technicals show a downtrend and the shareprice is now trading below the 200 dma... Pre-merger had the stock trading range bound between $12 and $13.25.... I expect the stock to get back to this trading range and then eventually stabilize. I also predict that this will eventually trade higher as company captures synergies and possibly sells-off assets to reduce debt.
So my strategy is to wait for a confirmed uptrend before purchasing.... but my guess is a floor somewhere around $12. I have an order in to buy a starter position at $12.20
So we will see....
I think this stock will be a winner.... it will just take a little patience.
Good luck to you All!
FI4