RE:What to expect in terms of the 40% Galp is vendoring
liquorwolf wrote: Galp is expected to sell 40% or 50% of their 80% of PEL 83. The impact ( no pum intended ) will have a direct effect on Custos' value, hence SEI. If the purchase price is between $1.50 and $2 a barrel for the estimated 10 billion barrel Mopane discovery or $15 to $20 billion, then we can assess a value for Sintana;s 5% plus or minus share. With 400mm shares o/s, the share price would expect to see $2.19 a share. However, after those who are in the war room, perhaps they will go for $3 a barrel, we won't know exactly what the final outcome will be. Additionally, I am only factoring in thre Mopane discovery, not valuing the full PEL, but most likely that has a 50% chance of being included. And then again, perhaps one of the majors will buy out PEL 83, hence Custos/Sintana. Sometimes you can have your cake and eat it too. The other two PELs are certainly worth an additional 35 to 50 cents a share. This is a wild guess. Comments welcome.
My possible current fair value...
83 = 12.5B OIP @ 40% RR @ $3.00 USD PER @ 4.9% = $1,006,850,000 CDN
(+10B quoted + additional for north targets + best RR and quality, shallower depth)
90 = 2.5B OIP @ 30% RR @ $2.50 USD PER @ 4.9% = $125,850,000 CDN
(Graff type discovery, great location between Total & Galp discoveries)
87 = 2.5B OIP @ 30% RR @ 2.25 USD PER @ 7.35%. = $169,905,000 CDN
(Graff type discovery, discounted for being more north, huge potential)
82 = 2.5B OIP @ 30% RR @ $2.00 USD PER @ 4.9%. = $100,685,000 CDN
(Graff type discovery, discounted for being more north, Chevron likes something)
79 = $3,000,000,000 CDN
103 = $3,000,000,000 CDN
VMM-37 = $15,000,000 CDN
Cash = $19,000,000 CDN
TOTAL SEI = $1,443,290,000 / 400M Shares Fully Diluted = $3.61 CDN