OTCPK:SPVEF - Post by User
Post by
ProtectTheQuanon Nov 18, 2018 5:14am
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Post# 28990810
Touquoy LoM
Touquoy LoMI didn’t forget about this blog, but I was out of the country for a while. I still don’t think the average shareholder deserves to be burnt on propped up quary results so I was wondering if some of you can crunch some of the latest numbers. So my biggest concern with juniour mines is when they chase the high grade only to kill the entire project within two years. If you look in their latest presentation at the LoM for the Touyouy ore resources shows roughly
2018 - 73.5k *
2019 - 96.2k
2020 - 93.5k
2021 ~ 90k
2022 ~ 40k
2018 expected to come in at high end of guidance despite an 8 week delay and this number is low.
Most of the presentations have the ore body as 10.1 Mt at a cut off of 0.4 g/t with a higher than current strip ratio. Unfortunately, their new cut-off of 0.25 gpt creates a cloud of smoke that’s hard to crunch through. Hopefully, someone can crack the veil and figure out the time to the bottom of the pit. The data so far indicated 2.1 Mt will be through the plant by EoY and another 2.1 Mt stockpiled. At this rate the 10.1 Mt ore body will be mined out by mid 2020. Unfortunately we don’t know the size of the ofebody with a cutoff of .25 gpt. Maybe someone can back peddle the data and try to figure out the entire mass of the pit including over burden. That might provide a better indication of where they are as we have the total material moved at 5.7 Mt at end of Q3.
My gut, my sources, and what I can glean from the data indicate this company is driven on producing high quarterly results, which they can easily do until about the end of 2019. (Q4 & Q1 may be lower than Q3 when the crusher, tailing facility, and mine roads start freezing up) At the end of 2019 the pit will be smaller and trucks, drills and shovels will be congested at the bottom. At that time the blast delays will increase, the tracks will be walked off the equipment, tires will be cut on tight turns, ground and blast control will become a large concern, pumps will need to be shut off and moved every blast which will increase the likelihood of frozen dewatering lines.
They tilted the mirror so it look good now, but focus the mirror on the back end and see if they can produce at the current income until FMS comes onboard.
My apologies for articulation. I’m writing this on a phone while sitting in a plane, but I figure this will provide some interesting fodder for the astute investor to spend a bit of Sunday looking into (or not) and commenting back on. Invest wisely, keep your money in your own pocket, and make those option earning crew earn their money instead of handing it to them freely.