Commodities View (Citi) Citi commodity analyst Ephrem Ravi appeared unconcerned about Chinese demand in a Monday research report,
“Commodities and equities tend to have a pullback during 12-18 month period in the cycle from the trough. The pullbacks were subsequently followed by acceleration in prices during 18-24 month period in the cycle from trough. Unless this time it’s different, we would likely see a similar acceleration over the next six months and with equities already underperforming the commodity price rally, we think the next leg of equity rally could come from a rise in commodity prices as well as catch-up of previous underperformance. The current sector position in the cycle indicates similar trajectory to that of 2008-11 and 2015-18 cycles; and if history is any guide, there could be 40% upside from current levels over the next 6-9 months, assuming the duration and magnitude of the current rally is similar to past cycles.’