RE:RE:RBCI expect it to be a bit higher on the Q3 and Q4 prices realized. You have to remember that with 8-10 week lead times that we saw in Q3, lots (most or all?) of Q3 production could have been sold in Q2 BUT prices should still be higher than what RBC is projecting here. Surprised that RBC is showing a 7 week lead time. Argus Media reported today that lead times shrank from 5-6 weeks last week to 4-5 weeks this week. If you move from 5-6 to 4-5 the following week...does that mean you did not get any orders? I mean if 1 week passes and your lead time shrinks by exactly 1 week? Anyway, I think it will definitely be interesting in late November. If lead times collapse to zero, we could start seeing huge price swings. Might be a good volatility play (buy both call/put on steel names)
fishcarrier wrote: Thanks, Retired! Good read. I don't understand their thinking that price of hot rolled coils would be up just 30%. Q 2 HR was $1292. Today it is over $1600 US, which makes it over $2000CAN. Prices all quarter have been above 1600 US on the CRU.
Anybody any thoughts on that?