Down To FinancingWhen you compare Allana Potash to a relatively new producer with similarities to Allana you begin to see what the future has in store in 3 years. I suggest you look at the IPI Intrepid website to find out more or confirm what I am posting below as real for a producing potash company with less than a million tons per year......
Interesting that Intrepid Potash has a mine life of
28 year mine life at 1 m tons per year....
Allana has a
46 year mine life at 1 m tons per year or
23 year mine life at 2 m tons per year
36 months away for Allana...still wonder why Allana Insiders have not sold any of their shares?
3 6 months we will have the results from the infill drilling in the southwest and 4 drill hole results from the East and 6 more holes planned in the East...remember Open Pit Mining adds at least 25% more recoverable KCL and 25% longer mine life...hope this helps some posters understand why Allana having the "ability" to move into production separates us from others..and first to get to production also has its advantages. I look forward to the day that Farhad confirms the "ability" as our financial reality...and once and for all put this to bed..
Karma .
Intrepid Potash: taken from the latest quarters financial statement:
75 million shares outstanding
234,000 tons KCL mined Q1 x 4 Quarters = 936,000 tons KCL to be mined 2011
Intrepid: 28 Year Mine Life
last traded for
$32.50
.62 cents per share
Net Operating Income first quarter 2011
.62 cents x projected 4 quarters 2011 = $2.48 per share / $32.50 per share =
13 times forward earnings
.40 cents per share
Free Cash Flow first quarter 2011
.40 cents x projected 4 quarters 2011 = $1.66 per share / $32.50 per share =
20 times forward earnings
Allana Potash:
230 million shares projected at time of production
250,000 tons KCL projected mined per quarter = 1 million tons KCL projected to be mined per year
Allana: currently based on NI Resource Estimate 46 Years Mine Life at 1 million tons per year or 23 Years Mine Life at 2 million tons KCl mined per year.
$500 per ton - $150 operating costs = $350 net per ton x 1 million tons = $350 million / 230 m shares =
$1.52 Net Operating Income per share x
13 times forward earnings = $20 per share AAA
Assume
2 million tons KCL mined per year x
13 times forward earnings = $40 per share AAA
Allana NI Resource Estimate: Total M&I 673mt @ 18.5% plus Inferred 596mt @19.69
First: Sylvinite Layer 16 years of mining (8 years if 2 m tons mined per year)
Next: Kainitite Layer 30 years of mining (15 years if 2 m tons)
Sylvinite Layer M&I 98 mt 30.00% KCL = 29.5mt kcl X 35% recoverable through Solution Mining
= 10 mt recoverable KCL and 10 yrs mine life
+ (Inferred 108mt 31.00% = 33.5 mt kcl x 50% infill drilling x 35% recoverable through Solution Mining
= 6 mt recoverable KCL and an additional 6 yrs mine life)
Kainitite Layer M&I 289mt 19.76% KCL = 57mt kcl x 35% recoverable through Solution Mining
= 20 mt kcl recoverable KCL and 20 yrs mine life
+ (Inferred 271mt 20.30% = 55 mt kcl x 50% infill drilling x 35% recoverable through Solution Mining
= 10 mt recoverable KCL and an additional 10 yrs mine life)