TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User
Comment by
Karmanowon Nov 30, 2011 7:11pm
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Post# 19281166
RE: Largest Miners like Potash
RE: Largest Miners like PotashFill your boots princess!!...Having sat on the other side of the table I can tell you that some serious questions are going to be asked...and answered before the drills get going...No shareholders of the major minors...Vale, BHP or K+S are going to just sit back and let over $3 billion dollars from the war chests just move into Sask.
They are the largest miners for a reason...they have long term plans and do their due dilligence...
Now that we are off the water...you can concentrate and give a logical and thought out response as to "what about the 25 million new tons of potash going to be produced by Mosaic, BHP and Potash Corp over the next 10 years in Sask...where is it going to be sold...and more important...for how much per ton???
$3 billion could get a major over half the Ethiopian Basin...and likely 3 mines and 6 million tons of KCL per year...
One day...someone is going to connect the dots..or ask the real question...what are we going to do with the potash once we spend the $3.5 billion to get it out?....what other options have we looked at?
Global MOP is 60 m tons per year...and you think the market demand can take a 40% increase over 10 years?
You better do some searching on projected potash demand over the next 20 years...Potash Corp. website is very imformative in their projections...several other agencies are good as well...the point is none show a demand for 85 m tons of MOP anytime soon...
In a round about way...having a glut may be the best thing ever for AAA...as she will make millions at MOP at $400 less $100 operating costs= $300 net per ton less debt and interest....important to remember she is only going to market for 60% of $700 million for debt...still leaves lots of positive cash flow and earnings per share for us...
Put up similar numbers for...lets say a junior wanting to go to market for 100% debt of $3.5 BILLION...do the math...but i warn you it is scary as hell...Mr. Doyle really is not kidding....and he has the experience and resources to actually know...
Good Luck...you are going to need it...
We are getting ready to get an updated NI Resource Estimate within 3 months time...and my calculations from those holes already reported + those still to come...should DOUBLE our measured and indicated categories...
Think we will still trade at $1.10?....
Likesmoney....lol your $3.00 start bid does not even give us comparative value for the pending "pounds in the ground"....I think it was a typo...was it $13.00 you meant?...lol...patience weedhopper...patience....
Karma