what has likely happened as of late First of all, when the company released their update on the bfs and other information, there was nothing really new or of material. we knew there was water, we knew there was going to be more potash, we knew that they are talking to players, we knew it all. all in all this is a neutral news release.
What made things negative are as follows:
1. Pot review of earnings below estimates
2. Could mean that potash prices may take a short to medium term hit?
3. The nova deal was not mentioned and has not mentioned since the suggested date where they said it would most likely be finalized.
With all of these considerations and not huge volume bringing the share price down, I do believe that the nova deal will get done, just delays on approvals etc.. but it does add uncertainty so share price goes down. People may remember that they were going to mobilize a rig to go look for water on the nova property. They may have but it was not mentioned that some of the 15 wells produced was on the nova land
The only thing I can think of for the deal falling through is that they had a late bidder like a yara (because they have alot of water) and nova is considering taking a different deal.
There seems to be much speculation as of late but we dont know forsure what is going on... that is some uncertainty. Investors do not like uncertainty so this could have pushed some to sell.
Positive today as the markets were down quite a bit and allana was up a little. comforting for now that they did not break .49
Have a good weekend everyone