RE: RE: RE: Post of the Day!!! REALITY CHECK!!! I seem drunk on fantasy?, let me reply to your last post here and point out that you missed the boat on what I wrote in my last post. Maybe your the drunk one who only wants to see what his own mind sees, and does not want to see reality. I said there are about 100 startup potash companies... How do you think these startups are funded? by a squirrel? a donkey?.. If you go read my last post, I was talking about INVESTORS. Obviously the CEO's are trying to make things work and if it does not, they will go onto a new project etc.. there are about 100 startup potash companies because INVESTORS think its a good risk/reward opportunity. Usually Investors of fund managers etc.. have been successful because they have money to invest, so you would think they know what they are talking about.. What about analysts? Most analysts believe in the potash story over time. You realise as well that the 500.00 potash price is in about 2-3 years in time... Also, if it was not for the most recent major discount of 70.00, the potash price (not what they get in deals like the one just made for 1 million tonnes) but other shipments go for a higher price. Even though they made a deal for 400 per tonne with china, other consumers who require a less amount does not get the same pricing.. it is reduced, but it is still higher. if its 475 per tonne, the rest of the consumers probably get it at around 500 per tonne.. In 2-3 years, chances are it will be back at about 500 per tonne. Especially if projects are being cancelled, which I expect BHP to delay its project indefinately.
One of the major strategies from Canpotex, POT etc.. is to increase demand by accepting a lower price. Get the ball rolling if you will. Basically saying, ok China, you got this one, but because of this sharp decline, its going to be much more competetive and a much needed change from other temporary fertilizers to where potash can start to be a more mainstream fertilizer. This will clear out inventories, and at the next round, Canpotex POT etc.. will have the edge. Pricing of commodities don't just go up in a straight line.