After the BFS I have been quietly reading posts, some very informed (thanks Jeremy for all of the articles you've been digging up!) just to name one person, but there are a bunch and you know who you are. I have also accumulated 27000 more shares after the BFS. I think the key strategy for management was to lower the Capex more than the street and previous investors/potential future investors were looking for. This past 2 years I have invested in this company, management has underpromised and over delivered. Sure the Opex rose a touch but I believe when we do get financing, the gov will step up and either finance the rail or it will be a bunch of us (yara, allana, fed(if they can get it together) etc.. I do think the highest posibility would be the government would fund it, as they see the basin as world class. I was initially dissapointed by the 1.3 billion nav, as we have done much more exploration etc.. since the 2 bil. and what they forgot to mention on the conference call was that the NAV was based on the extraction of only the sylvinite layer with a cutoff grade of 15% (I believe in the pea it was a little lower). This does not include future on NOVA for sylvinite, carnalite or kanitite. AND it does not include carnalite or kanitite on Allana. the carnalite kanitite and the sylvinite not registered for this bfs would surpass a mine life of 25 years on its own. I believe we would have approximately from both properties a mine life with 1 mil tonnes per year if you combine sylv, carnalite and kanitite, you are looking at 75-80 years of production. maybe more. You also have to remember there was a bunch of sylvinite explored that was not included becasue it was "inferred" and not indicated. I think coming down 150 mil approx from the pea is HUGE for existing shareholders as it greatly reduces the amount of equity needed to be raised. I think they could probably get away with 70% debt, 15-20% offtake and 10-15 equity raise. (that could include offtake investors).
I think in the next few weeks, we will see rock mechanic test work, and the environmental study published. This would probe its environmentally friendly, and that carnalite is possible with probably a bit more capex and slightly higher opex but not significant at all, it may be even more economica, because we could sell the magnesium by product (other juniors are wanting to do that).
In summary, I don't think you could get a better risk/reward opportunity for the next 2-3 years. I definately see this stock at 5 bucks in a few years, even with mild to moderate dillution. There are so many positives that are coming down the pipeline. Like I said, management has always under promised and over delivered (with all buyin on the inside and no selling... hmmm I wonder why) where there's smoke, there's fire folks. I wonder if the bashers could tell us why its bad when insiders have only bought in the past few years and have not sold a penny... sounds like the company is in dire straights eh? lol
Where there is smoke, there's fire!