TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User
Post by
scorpio1on Jun 26, 2013 11:36pm
![](https://assets.stockhouse.com/kentico-cms/0342-00/images/Sprite.svg#id_Post_Views_Icon)
326 Views
Post# 21575378
Revisiting Past Valuation for Allana
Revisiting Past Valuation for AllanaThought it would be fun to revisit a past valuation methodology based upon the average of the last three potash takeover deals (Anglo Potash's interest in the Jansen Project, Athabaska's Potash's Burr Project and Potash One's Legacy Project) which were sold for an average price of $14.65 per sellable Measured & Indicated tonne.
Allana's new resource estimate of Measured & Indicated resource =
2.4 billion tonnes X 17.9% KCL X 35% extraction ratio = 150.4 million sellable tonnes
150.4 million sellable tonnes X $14.65 per sellable M&I tonne = $2,203 million
$2,203 million/276.4 million shares = $7.97 per share valuation.
(The above assumes no premium for SOP resource, completion of BFS, no premium for completion of $600 million in long term financing nor a comparitively lower cap ex and opex than most/all other greenfield potash projects)
Just the capex difference would be roughly $2.4 billion...and if we split that with the potential buyer, then a conservative premium is $1,200 million/276.4 million shares = $4.34 per share valuation.
I could go on but that comes to at least a $12.31 per share valuation. Tell you what....if you give me half that right now.... I'll take it and we'll call it a deal. Ahhhh if only.