I disagree with you guys on one point - the assumption that Uralkali somehow made a mistake here. They are taking a long-term perspective. There were a few things they needed to address:
- The overwhelming amount of supply that was trying to come online.
- Developing world farmers were shifting towards cheaper, less effective soil nutrients.
- Canpotex and Uralkali's cartel partner were taking marketshare at their expense.
Uralkali was never dumb enough to think that volume over price would make them more profitable. This was a statement - mistret us and we can put the hurt on you. As the lowest cost producer they've demonstrated that they can (and will) put a stop to the quota creep. They've definitely delayed (if not shelved) potential new supply. No idea how effective they'll be convincing farmers to move back to potash, but lower prices can only help, not hurt that.
It's a bit refreshing to see a company willing to take a very long-term outlook and eat short-term pain to improve that outlook. Unfortunately it screwed us over (Allana investors).