Post by
mjh9413 on Oct 03, 2016 4:38pm
Sept qtr AFFO
With recent price decline I revisited Q3 possibility. I still believe that AFFO itself should increase but only about 7%. Very roughly, they have the stabilization and rent revenue increases from May 1 ($9MM wy), and they will save money on the repayment of that RBC loan (use of part proceeds from the unit issue) of about $690K/qtr. So, taking these on a proportionate basis (they had part benefits in Q2) they might make about $19.2MM AFFO (up from $17.9MM Q2) and that equates to 8.8c per unit, a very slight decrease and hence slightly depleted payout ratio, based on 218MM average units o/s. Their (bank loan) debt is down $74MM and they have the rest of the net proceeds as cash, and they do indicate in Prospectus they have no really defined used for these even though the NR referred to property expansions. I also have to wonder if they are feeling much pain in Alberta to affect the results significantly but, taken together I still do not see that new unit issue was a good thing. I actually sold out at these levels (and also my other REIT) shortly after the unit issue and went into TNT.U, so I am not long AAR, but good luck. AMHO.
Comment by
BMWIN on Oct 04, 2016 11:08am
I don't expect the price to move up til after Oct 13th. Until the new units are issued that is.
Comment by
mjh9413 on Oct 04, 2016 4:01pm
This was a bought deal so wonder how it was subscribed to. I would think that the price will go at least 10% below deal price if not well received (but then again, the brookers would have sealed their profits by selling/shorting at those much higher prices!!! and they probably have a 20c window in terms of fees and net proceeds to Piret.) The House ALWAYS wins.
Comment by
hemi3tc on Oct 05, 2016 4:22pm
The deal is closed now. So 100% of the units were bought up. The price should start moving slowly back up as the settlement date gets closer.