RE:RE:AIR CANADA VALUATION ANALYSIS My goal is help folks. Cheerleading or talking down others is of no help. My post was full of figures scraped from regulatory reports and multiples from my data service. an optimistic scenario was also presented.
most retail investors see a stock that goes from $50 to $17 and thinks it will just bounce back. They have no concept of how debt will impact the valuation . Not their fault - but they aren't educated in it.
and if I wanted to illustrate "sentiment" for a lower share price , I would have included a bearish scenario - which is EBITDA getting only back to $2 billion and market putting 4x on that = $8 billion , less the debt of $7.3 billion. The equity would then be worth $700m, or $2.70 per share.
you will note I did not. Don't ascribe motives to people who are trying to help ensure folks don't blow themselves up in the stock market.