Air Canada thoughts My thoughts:
By now its clear (or becoming clearer) that AC is one of the best (if not the best) financially managed airline. Also, amongst North American airlines, AC stands out for multiple reasons, viz. liquidity, only major national carrier, better product, lower capex, large fleet ownership, lowest # of (even lower than UAL) shares outstanding, excellent loyalty plan, large domestic business (unlike european carries), and more.
COVID will reduce eventually and travel will resume or travel will commence with COVID around. In both scenarios, domestic travel will ramp up first, followed with transborder and then international. Key will be to make money at reduced capacity.
AC can make money with lowest capacity in the market. Any doubts, I suggest read AirlineInvestors posts to understand better. Lower fixed cost, excellent control on variable cost, lower fuel price at least for a foreseable future (during this transition phase), fleet ownership, younger and fuel efficient fleet (and getting better), etc. CEWS program is an excellent help. Btw, it applies to all employees and no top up; literally nil labor cost till the end of the program.
Westjet is going to be a mess, probably will have to slow down on international flying for sometime. Improved Aeroplan will help tackle them. Air Transat .....? well, if AC backs out, they are toast (less liquidity, new airplanes on order, etc.) If AC does buy them (after negotiated price and govt subsidies), then imagine who rules Canadian air space. Canada is a large country with ineffective transnational passeneger railway. How will you visit different parts of the country?
In few weeks/months from now, domestic travel will ramp up, ofcourse not to the levels seen before, not the same load factor. This is where airlines with lesser fixed cost win. AC is in that category. Q3 will be majorly domestic travel. Next question is who will fly. Well there are lots of people with disposable income who wants to. Not the lower income level. Hence, lower capacity with higher fares.
As for international travel, same logic applies. With lower capacity, highly debted European and US airlines, flying will become expensive and definitely there will be lesser options. The ones who can compete on price will win. AC will win in this case too.
OTB comments on providing service to underserved national markets are bang on.
Not going in more details, all above doesn't include govt aid. AC doesn't need govt aid to survive but govt help (no need to beg though) will help it thrive. In this scenario, AC wont allow govt stake. Assistance will come in form of CEWS (already there, infact this is so much better than US), Air Transat deal, Lower airport fees, navigation fees, tax breaks, jet fuel tax breaks, airport pax tax, etc.... There are plenty of areas to explore with time.
Btw, when you buy from amazon using Air Canada credit card, who do you think makes money :). There has been enough discussion on this topic in past many months. Don't forget this.
Will airline stock be better than Amazon or Shopify or others. Depends on how you look at it. AC stock can double in near future (next 12 months), not sure I can say that about many others.