Delivering Results but not confidenceFirst, I had a lot of options while AC disclosed the new forecasted EBITDA. I add more options that friday so, I made a very decent profit with this news. I sold all my may 19 options in the last 3 days (I kept and add longer options). I'm happy.
But, what happened is unacceptable from a major corporation. For having success they have to show results but inspiring confidence too.
They published disappointing forecasts the february 17 with the Q4 results. The SP fell 15% in the next days. But the february 17, more than 50% of the Q1 had passed. We know now that the Q1 was stellar. Did the last 6 weeks of the quarter were so different than the 6 firsts ?
No, by the bookings , management know in advance the load factors and the yields. I can add that in the six last weeks of this quarter, the economy worsened with the beginning of the bank crisis march 5 and a loss of hope for lower interest rates.
So, how can they claim that the situation has improved so much since February 17th that they can confidently increase their forecast by 40% (1 B$) by the end of the year.
A 40% increase is not pennies. Something doesn't work. Inexplicable, unacceptable and puzzling.
They miss their february forecasts ? They didn't watch closely the numbers they had in hand? Nobody crosschecked the numbers and the forecasts? I don't know, but a so huge difference is anormal.
They show results in Q1 fine...... but did they inspired confidence ?
I am not surprised that many analysts stay cautious and put 12 months targets at 22$ or 23$.
The Rovinescu years are far away.