| Year | Shorts Narrative & accuracy | Rational Analysis | Action | Outcome |
| 2020 | AC will be bankrupt in 2020. World is coming to an end | Bankruptcy in 2020: INCORRECT | Could surive for 2 years with current revenue | Quick reduction in capacity/cost. Raised cash from debt and equity offering. Maximized Cargo capacity/revenue, Others | Survived easily, raised cash and controlled cash burn |
| 2021 | AC will be bankrupt in 2021. Travel will be restricted for years | Bankruptcy in 2021: INCORRECT | Could surive for 3 years with current revenue | Capacity alignment, Employee reduction (Post CERB), Credit card volume increase, Prepared for future travel operating model | Survived easily, reduced cash burn and set up for 2022 travel opening |
| 2022 | Bankruptcy eminent eventually. COVID will return. | COVID will return : INCORRECT | Demand will return, Cash burn will reduce to 0. | Slow opening of travel, optimal capacity to cater to demand. Focus on key routes. Placed acft orders to prepare for future operating strategy | Breakeven achieved. H2 was cash positive. |
| 2023 | AC will loose billions. Demand won't return. Recession is coming | Demand won't return. Cash burn to continue : INCORRECT | Pent up demand. AC will follow US airlines. Yield will be high. Record cash flows | Optimal capacity deployment. Focus on margins. Added employees for future. Focus on premium business. | Record CFO and FCF. LR of 1.1 .$3b reduction in debt. Placed order for better acft |
| 2024 | Market crash, recession in Canada, large Capex, pilot strike will kill the airline | Pilots strike: Won't happen | Capacity still lower than 2019, strong immigration numbers, international focus (intl travel % is higher than ever), efficient fleet, higher margins, no pilot strike, just negotiations. | Focus on margin, young, efficient and optimal fleet, flexbility in capacity, strengthening loyalty program, focus on intl and 6th freedom (reduce dependence on domestic market, optimal network/fleet reaching countries of immigration, taking competition head on. Focus on consistent FCF in coming years | Record Q1 FCF, LR ~ 0.9, Investor grade in sight, financially strongest airline in North America, getting ready to return capital to shareholders. Back to 2019 Financial health |
| 2025+ | Canada in huge recession, Interest rate and property value decrease together!!, Competition thrives and AC suffers, etc... | Recession: FCF will conitnue | If economy holds, rates stay high, If rates go down, property market stablizes (other constraints). Both scenarios good for AC. Travel market will catch up on missed demand growth in last 5 years. | Focus on margin, flexible capacity, efficient and optimal fleet, maximize tools at hand to compete effectively | Forecast: Return capital to shareholders, consistent FCF every year, enhanced margins. |