how about watching the ECRFrom the May presentation the expectation is for revenue of 156.7 million for 2023 - out of this LMS comprises 4.0 million - their ECR has dipped below 1 the last 2 quarters due to the spike in steel prices and as a result they have suspended distribuitons - this was discussed on the conference call and the expectation is that distributions will restart later this year as steel prices are moderating - management indicated that they anticipate the deferred distributions to be received by Alaris over the next several quarters similar to the PF distribution arrangement - in any case the LMS contribution is 2.6% of total revenue so considering the current run rate payout ratio is in the 65 - 70% range not a huge concern at this point.
The only other 2 partners that had a decrease in their ECR from Q4 2022 to Q1 2023 were 3E and Accscient - the 3E annual distribution is 8 million or 5.1% of total revenue - ACC contributes 13 million and comprises 8.3% of annual revenue - both of these companies have an ECR between 1.2 and 1.5 so they have 20 - 50% more earnings than their distribution obligation to Alaris.
The rest of the companies in their portfolio did not have a change in their ECR so no concern at this point with business deterioration for this group of 16 businesses which represent 84% of Alaris revenue.
Nobody has a crystal ball but to compare the result of the pandemic crash on share price and extrapolate that to what might happen in the event of higher interest rates seems to be a little pessimistic - if Alaris was paying out 90% or more of their run rate revenue that would ring some alarm bells but that is not the case - the recent drop in the share price was all about the lawsuit settlement which suprised a lot of people but was a one time event.
The latest number being tossed around is the US will pay a little over 1TRILLION DOLLARS to service their current budget deficit this year - that is not sustainable - it is great to talk about fighting inflation by raising rates but the bottom line is if they continue to raise rates the interest they are paying to service the debt will eventually cause their deficits to spiral out of control even more - a lot of the other western countries have the same dilemna so at some point governments are going to have to cut spending or face some dire consequences