Andrew Peller Ltd T.ADW.A

Andrew Peller

[PrivilegedP5000]

There is plenty of liquidity and the Company has a long history of dividend paying; in addition they have a lot of properties that could be sold to pay down debt.

[PrivilegedP5000]

Also, let's face it Peller is really the only truly fully professionally run winery in Canada with scale and a strong distribution network- it could easily be sold for a substantial premium or could partner with a U.S. or international player.

[johnathamilton]

"Also, let's face it Peller is really the only truly fully professionally run winery in Canada with scale and a strong distribution network- it could easily be sold for a substantial premium or could partner with a U.S. or international player." I would partially agree with you. Peller is the biggest CANADIAN owned private winery and distribution company. Constellation Brands, while

[PrivilegedP5000]

Thanks for the reply and I acknowledge the above; would you rather buy shares in a company trading with a 6 percent yield at a substantial premium to net asset or break up value or a substantial discount to net asset or break up value?

[TheCount11]

I think the stock price keeps chopping lower because funds have been net sellers and retail is only willing to buy at lower and lower prices.  Fund PMs have significant career risk buying an unprofitable winery with deferred CapEx paying a Dividend using Debt that is not buying back stock.  Its impossible to predict the bottom but I fear we are nowhere close to it.

[PrivilegedP5000]

Stock is near lows and I think the big sellers (overhang) is gone; the risk of portfolio managers is underperformance - sometimes they need to buy other than Google to justify existence; there are fund managers like Donville Kent that might have interest as deep value players; the dividend is not really at any risk given the strong asset base. 

[TheCount11]

I was going to start this post saying no analyst would ever pitch this to their PM because they would get fired but you are persistant so I will bite. Lets level set with your revenue and operating profit projections for next 4 quarters.   Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Revenue       &

[PrivilegedP5000]

I worked in the industry awhile back and this is exactly what we would pitch and or buy (alpha creator). I think you a missing a few positives in this story. In the last few CC's mgt has talked about how costs are expected to normalize over next 18 months and how little demand there has been from Chinese consumers- all of this will change margins and sales going forward. These vineyards are

[PrivilegedP5000]

Further, at this stage of huge undervaluation to NAV (asset currently) and hopefully in a few years income undervaluation is really about judging the sentiment shift to small cap stocks generally and value stocks more specifically as well as winery stocks even more specifically. This is really where the "art" exists in investing.

[TheCount11]

I had a pretty simple and easy question to level set 1) revenues and operating profits by quarter 2) depreciation to CapEx ratio Pretty rude to ignore the question and start pumping the stock 

[PrivilegedP5000]

It is the wrong question to ask; you were sending me down a "rabbit hole"; I am sorry of the truth offends u.

[PrivilegedP5000]

Diamond Wine and Estates also publicly traded leases a number of wineries in B.C. - the model works well according to them (although the company not unlike Peller has struggled post the Pandemic for similar transient reasons); Peller has substantial assets where they might pursue a similar arrangement unleashing cash and substantially reducing capex. So think "outside the box" and like I

[johnathamilton]

Management's ability to turn around the ship is the big question here. Until the company can show that it can generate sufficient profit to cover the dividend, the stock price will be at risk. Real estate is a great business, but there is a danger in conflating it with the wine business. Yes, there is a net asset value that grows with the increase in value of land holdings but unless you can

[TheCount11]

Agree 100%. My writing lacks your clarity. 

[PrivilegedP5000]

Can one not argue that good winery assets are similar to owning a sports franchise - they can and do garner the attention of big money - there is no one with greater depth than Peller in the space.