National Bank Precious metals analysts at National Bank Financial updated estimates across our their coverage universe ahead of quarterly earnings season and highlighted their “conviction” picks for the period on Friday.
“Consensus estimates remain fluid, thus modest differentials vs. NBF may be explained, while larger gaps are a source for our conviction beats/misses,” they said. “At the time of writing, we have conviction in Agnico Eagle (AEM.TO), Lundin Gold (LUG.TO) and New Gold (NGD.TO) beating consensus Adj. EPS estimates, while we expect First Majestic (FR.TO) to miss. Details behind our conviction calls are presented later in this report. For concentrate producers, provisional pricing adjustments are expected to be a net positive for 1Q24 earnings. Timing of sales could also prove positive on average realized gold and/or silver prices given the strong finish to the quarter for both metals.”
“A number of producers have guided to a back-half-weighted production year, and thus, we expect several companies to have lower production Q/Q. The Turkish lira continued to depreciate, providing a potential tailwind. With inflation proving stickier than expected, we are looking for commentary on any inflationary pressures in consumable prices and labour that could have a material impact on costs in 2024.”
Target price adjustments for senior producers were:
- Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. ( “outperform”) to $104 from $105. Average: $93.25.