RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:potential catalyst tomorrow - May 9thI think Aimia should have focused on deals in Canada and the U.S., like they promised they would over and over again, until they sprung deals in India and Italy upon us, like "surprise! fooled you!"
But, I do think they did get lucky with Bozzetto. It was a weird moment in time, sometimes the planets do align, even for drunk drivers.
For comps there's not much in the public domain that fits this size and focus so I'm thinking of some of the smaller public specialty chems like Sakai Chemical (JP: 4078, JPY 2,064) with an EV of USD 322 mil., it's only at 7.5x EV/EBITDA (T12M) but also only 8% EBITDA margin and negative growth over past 5 years and 10 years, or at $1.3B EV there is Elementis PLC (LSE: ELM GBp 146) at 11.3x EV/EBITDA (T12M, pre-IFRS 16) with somewhat higher EBITDA margin of 16% but no growth (sales down over past 5 years and 10 years).
More broadly, various research reports (like a report from AlixPartners that I recently saw on Twitter but can't find now) show specialty chemical public companies trading around 10.5x to 11x EV/EBITDA (T12M) but the median size there would be much larger and the median EBITDA margin also likely higher, maybe 16% to 18%, but lacking the growth that Bozzetto has produced (albeit largely M&A driven, it is growth nonetheless that comps have lacked).