RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Aimia…Aeroplan…Air Canada…Non-Compete…No Go!The SP will continue to move sideways until we know what the deal actually is: this uncertainty is depressing the SP, with good reason. There are 4 possible outcomes:
1. The deal effectively shuts down all airline loyalty programs. The partnerships with Porter, Transat and Flair are expressly forbidden. Aimia is now just a holding company, and the investment banker that is the new President (under Rabe) sells off the assets, and the company is wound up. I think this would be great for all of us, as the breakup value at the moment is significantly higher than the current share price.
2. The deal allows Aimia to continue to be in the airline loyalty business, and it still pursues the partnerships with Transat, etc. If that is the case I think the shareprice would also go up, as we would have lots of cash, no real liabilties, and a future building what some on this board have called AP 2.0. I fear that that may be unlikely however, as I cannot see AC making a deal without that restrictive covenant. Also, I would suspect that Transat, Flair, OneWorld, etc. might no longer be interested. Those 5 million card holders were the big attraction, espcially for OneWorld. Those partnerships are probably all off the table now. Of course, I don't know that, but it is just a suspicion.
3. The deal does shut down all airline loyalty programs, but Aimia does not wind up, and instead it tries to use the cash to start new ventures, focussing on things like Cardlytics, and focusing on its loyalty consulting business, such as the sector that did the PetSmart deal, etc. I can see management liking this direction: since when does any group of managers voluntarily say "Hey, let's wind up and fire ourselves!" If this happens, the share price will tank. Nobody wants them to take the $450 million and buy magic beans with it.
4. The deal is not approved by shareholders. Then for sure Aimia moves forward with Aeroplan 2.0, the deals with Transat, Flair, Porter and OneWorld move ahead. Then, who knows. The stock will certainly crash in a day pretty severely, but it may rebound if that business plan resonates with the market. I think this is a very unlikely scenario. Mittleman is contractually oblilged to support the deal. I doubt he did that without talking to Burgundy, and between them that is probably enough to push it through for sure.
For the moment, no one really knows anything, and so the SP will just dither.
anthony3 wrote: justbull4u wrote: One word...partnerships...
anthony3 wrote: but the biggest problem that shareholders don't want is for Aima to start from scratch with no 5milion members, no employees,no partnerships and have to build from the ground up.. im surprised the sp doesn't show the uncertainty we feel as shareholders.. like someone said this looks like more of a pump and grab.. at any point the share price can crash at the blink of an eye.. I think the AC shareholders are the ones keeping this up, unless we all believe that Aima is selling AC all of its liabilities with AP to build AP 2.0 with $450milion .. were all speculating and this is no good!
any they in this deal or do they stay with AMIA?? someone help me here