RE:New Report from Laughing Water Captital on AIM/GAPFFThanks for posting that. It is an analysis that supports the long term value of these shares, which is good for all of us. It was mildly concerning for me because it does hint that we may have to wait longer than I would have liked to. At times I have wanted the company to simply dissolve after Aeroplan is gone, because the NAV would result in a realtively high dissolution value per share, probably at least $6. I was always afraid of the company's managment left with a bill pile of cash after the Aeroplan sale, and then blowing it on ill advised projects as they try to justify their jobs. That fear was mitigated by Mittleman being on the board, as he can't really want that either. However, it may be that the biggest non Aeroplan asset, the 49% stake in PLM, is just so illiquid that dissolution for a fair value is just not possible. So, at that point we all have to stick around for a little longer, hopefully confident that the Mittleman will ensure that proceeds of the Aeroplan sale are invested wisely, all the time trying to patiently liquidate the PLM stake.
A lot of the uncertainty in the stock value is the value of the PLM stake. Analysists that are pessimistic abougt Aima Inc. going forward usually do so on the basis of calculations that seriously discounts the PLM shares, due to illiquidity and the minority discount. Mittleman is more positive, mostly because he has written that he believes it has a much higher value.
CatamaranFund wrote: Seeking Alpha post that includes Laughing Water Capitals p;osition in GAPFF/ AIMIA with detailed summary & indications on future higher $ US dollar valuations This confirms the higher valuations as expressed by Cold Toes and others on this forum.
Article covers GAPFF on page 4 to 7. Notice on page 6 it states; "Aimia will be a pile of cash, a Large NOL and assorted loyalty assets...it is impossible to to pinpoint NAV as the assets are privately held...and the present value of NOL is indeterminate...but in this case i am happy to be approximately right than rather than exactly wrong...I think a range of somewhere between 6 to 10 dollars a share is a reasonable guess..." (Regarding the after sale fears that many share, self included) "...suggesting that if following the sale of Aeroplan the remaining company was simply shut down and sold for scrap, we would earn an acceptable return."
MSweeny at Laughing Waters Capital goes on to say
"...but assuming Mittleman Brothers remains in the drivers seat, it is likely that the NAV will grow over time...One near term path forward would be to simply pay off the companys debt, restore dividends to preferred shares, and then begin to buy back the commomn shares in order to shrink the gap to NAV...If repurchasing shares is indeed the plan going forward, we are in the fortunate position that if the shares move lower in the near term post deal close, in the long term we will realize more value...Mittleman Brothers have an enviable long term track record of identifying businesses with very stable current cash flows when they are trading at low prices... the rewards will be substantial with time" Read entire report here of Aimia on page 4 to 7
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4213689-laughing-water-capital-q3-2018-letter Cheers to all long investors