RE:RE:RE:AIMIA ValuationI would have to check again, but I thought that that debt was comprised of the bonds due early in 2019, the bank credit facility, and the dividends due to the prefs as per the prospectus, and due to the commons for the divided declared but not paid. I could always be wrong though.
As for the PLM amount, you are right, I don't think they would want sell it for $300 MM. I put that number down to be conservative: they could almost certainly get that amount from Aeromexico, given that Aeromexico already offered $240MM CDN. I was trying to set a minimum floor for the NAV, especially in a liquidation scenario where Aeromexico might drive a hard bargain. (In fact, the liquidity or lack of it, of the PLM stake is a factor arguing against liquidation.)
Either way, it is certain that the book value of Aimia is over double its market cap. As long as Rabe doesn't take the money and buy a bag of magic loyalty beans with it, we should all do very well.
coldtoes wrote: I think the preferreds are part of the $300 mill debt as per the Q3 financials. At least, that was how I calculated it.
Do you think they would let PLM go for $300mill? That is only $60million more than what they were offered in July ($180mill USD, $240mill CDN).
Mattywack2 wrote: From that valuation you have to subtract the value of the preferred shares, but even if you do that you still end up with a valuation of around 7.50. And even if you downgrade the value of the PLM sale even more, you are still at 6.50 at a minimum. I can't see the NAV being any less than that.
As amugsgame and shockandawww have pointed out, the SP is probably being severely depressed by the general uncertainly as to what management is going to do with this huge pile of cash. Mittleman has publically stated that he wants to either turn the company into an investment vehicle, or in the alternative, dissolution. We could probably end up doubling SP in a dissolution. Mittleman thinks that that wastes the massive tax loss that could be monetized if the company was an investment vehicle. Contrary to that are the comments from management in the circular indicating that the direction of the company is still very much in the air, and that putting that money back into new loyalty programs was still on the table. Who will wiin that fight? Mittleman is contractually obligated to support the board until July 1, 2019. Nobody wants that except the management and employees of Aimia. Independant loyalty companies are a thing of the past and the market woudn't support that. It's a crowded field and a newcomer would find it difficult. I think that is the fear that is keeping this stock at 3.30.
coldtoes wrote: I did this math over on StockTwits, thought I'd put it here because the format is easier.
$3 per share for Aeroplan
$3 per share for PLM (PLM is actually estimated to be worth $600million, but I'm valuing it at $450)
$.90 for CDLX, ThinkBig, Fractal Analytics.
$1.33 per share for cash on hand ($500mill - $300mill)
$.90 per share for tax-loss carryforward of $800mill CDN.
$9.13 total value per share.
Who is selling this at $3.30? And why is it selling in such a tight range consistently?