RE:My head hurtsNice question moneymachine and one ive been thinking on too. haha I especially like how you put all of the numbers to the exact share, shows me you really put some care into that.
So ill start with your last emotional thought as to all of the mahematical ones in there. Gut feeling. On balance, my gut is telling me to hold. I even find it frustrating to say that because ive wanted to just move on like many shareholders.
So then i had to ask myself, why does it feel different this time?
So i can recall feeling comfortable during the large SIB period you mentioned. I like to think I'm beyond this but who doesn't like seeing their stocks sitting at a nice price for a while, even if only bolstered by those profiteers at Credit Suisse? Regardless, though, I recall having an ominous feeling about it and so wasn't surprised when it crashed after the buys were completed. Same feelings to a lesser degree with the following NCIB.
So i had to think back of what I was thinking about the company through that time period and I have to admit it took some doing. In particular, i had to remember when it was that i knew for sure that Mittelman and the board/Rabe were at war. We saw the nasty releases and then lawsuits fly later this year, but that was long after the street knew there were big problems on that front. And we know how much the street rightfully HATES these kinds of battles.
Mittelman has long been on the record (hell his website has a nice article on this "Ready, AIMIA, fire!" (Someone else can post it they'd like) as wanting AIMIA to explore accretive purchases on any front and exploit tax losses in the neighbourhood of $600 million. I supported this.
Then AIMIA releases the results of its long awaited review in the early spring on its business future which showed their intention on doubling down in the loyalty solutions space. I, and others, were greatly disappointed. It seemed to be especially insulting towards Mittelman. Many retail holders (and especially pref holders), of course, wanted the conclusion to be a wrap up. I would have liked that too for a quick gain but also conceptually really got why Mittelman wanted otheswise. I remember being anxious that this would be it for MIttelman and he might just find a way to dispose of his interest.
Then, worst of all, it became clear that they were at war. Also last spring this board posted an affidavit filed in the Nathaniel Fleshcer lawsuit. Mind you, Fleschers hiring and then departure one month later was concerning, and now we could all see what a poisonous situation had been created between Mittelman and Rabe.
So this was the underlying context since before either the SIB or subsequent NCIB. A company with no debt and a pile of cash but with a civil war ensuing with no clear direction apparent. And things only got worse from there with every release and court filing.
This time, on balance, i feel much different about the situation. The war is over. I feel mittelman and now Fischer's control is recognized and that they company will be able to focus on shareholder value and growth. Hell, i could see them now acquiring more shares. I dont see the same reason for a crash after the SIB is competed, and can actually see conceptually why shares might actually go up.
Thats not to say i know sh$%, of course, and shares could well crash after the purchase is done, but this is what I am feeling today...