RE:RE:RE:Why are we going up...?masfortuna wrote: Positives:
#2 Regulated earnings which should encourage investors after August 1st (quarterly) to invest or hold.
#6 Oil prices seem to trading in a range and with Saudis restricting output should not drop to substantially if at all since it is "driving season"
Negatives:
#1 America (read USA) may need to shutdown again.
#2 Maybe a second wave in the fall'ish
#3 Oil drops to negative oil again if pandemic strikes in force
Regarding those positives and negatives... You understand that regulated earnings (which I can confirm since in their last presentation they show they are under a "cost of service" basis with their regulators) mean that they'll earn close to 100% of what's allowed by the regulator regardless of market fluctuations? In other words, the regulators set the revenue they can earn at "cost of service" which includes a return on assets. If they earn more than that revenue, then they push back over-earnings in rates reduction and if they earn less than that revenue, then they push back under-earnings in rates hikes. The return on assets is basically guaranteed even if the economy is bad. For 60% of their EBITDA, shutdowns/second wave will have little effect on current and future earnings. For the other 40%, it will likely not have a large effect, as midstreams usually have take-or-pay contracts.
As to oil prices, the only effect I could see would be a potential reduction in Ripet's volume. So far though, this hasn't been the case.
So, those negatives won't directly affect Altagas' performance in terms of earnings. Were you talking about broad market effects of such events?