RIPET first full year of operation
Summary of LPG exported to Japan for the first full year of operation.
You will see that the EBITDA number varies because of their edging program.
On the Q1 2020 ALA had a loss of $6 M EBITDA on hedge loss,(see the summaru below)
Sometimes the will have a favorable hedging like the Q3 2019 but assuming what they would received the same amount in the Q3 and Q4 of last year was not a good calculation from my part and over estimated $ 5M/quarter.
Worth noting In the Q1 2020 ALA has an EBITDA of $ 27 M with 6 shipements and $ 30 M with 7 shipments just to show that hedging is an important point to consider when it's time to put a number on the EBITDA each quarter.
Should the EBITDA having been pro rata of the last 2 2019 quarters EBITDA would have been at least $ 10M more .
For the actual quarter ALA has 3 shipments in July
and already have ''Crystal Marine'' being loaded''
and shoud depart around August 7th.
Probably 8 shipments for the Q3 and the same for the Q4 for a total of 29 shipments for 2020 .
So 50 000 b/d is possible but they might have to work harder on the edging program and the gas price is having a considerable weight in the overall operation.
RIPET is a very good ''cash cow''and assure a leveling in the seasonability of their revenues.
Ex :40% ---»Q1..20%--» Q2--10% --»Q3 30 % Q4
.................ALA Shipement summary year One
,,,date .....Tons..Total.....Ships ...EBITDA
May.2019.21027........................................
June.........888i9.....109963...3........18 M (?)
July...........90134 .................................................
August......90390..................................................
Sept..........88166..268690.... 6.........$37M...........
...........barels/day 36 900...................................
Oct...........97125.................................................
Nov..........87706..................................................
.Dec.........90082..274 913.....6.........$37 M..........
...........barels/day 37352
Total.....................633566 ....15.........$ 92 M......
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2020
Jan 88408
Feb 38020
Mars 131365...257 793 6 ...........$ 27 M....
...........Barels/day
April 90 772 .................................................
May 86193..................................................
June....127283..304248......7.............$30 M.....
Total. Barels/day 41460.`....13...........$ 57 M