RE:RE:RE:RE:Argonaut Gold Snubs Shareholders With Financing That Will Digeosan0 wrote
Master Investor you say. If I was a Master Investor I would not be a bag holder like the rest of the
this message is directed at sciarda.
shareholders who are averaging down to get out of this turd.
You obviously didn't catch the frustration with my message. The frustration is with incompetent management that is allowed to continue and draw a salary.
With all your rosy cashflow projections have you asked yourself why no mining company is stepping up to fully subscribe to the $190million financing to control 65% of the company and use that $400million cashflow you quote? You wouldn't even need management approval to carry out the buyout because they are offering you the chance on a silver platter.
You are throwing figures around that this will be an 8 to 10 bagger in the next couple of years. For who, the vultures that are getting in at this price or the existing shareholders who got screwed. Not sure if you have seen some of the valuations of mining companies who produce 1 million ounces a year but even they don't trade at your valuation. And you expect this turd to have a market cap of $7billion. Smoke them if you got them!!!
Shareholder friendly company would have done a rights offering at that price and let all suffering shareholders have the right to participate in the future growth.
Great asset with poor managment means opportunity for the next operator.
For those interested just look up the history of the Island Gold mine and a company called Patricia Mining who went belly up holding what has now become one of the most profitable operations in Canada. Incompetence should never be rewarded!!!
Good luck to you but I am only looking for $1.00. You can keep the rest.
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It is fairly obvious just by the things you post and the way you do math that you are far from a Master Investor. Not that i am one myself mind you.
Actually i did catch the frustration and bitterness in all of your recent messages. Are you sure it is management you are angry at or yourself for not selling out and taking a smaller loss awhile ago when all signs pointed to things not going well for this company?
The huge increase in the cost of the new mine was not a bad sign? What about getting rid of the CEO at that time? The announcement that the costs had ballooned another 15% was another red flag. What about the insider selling a huge pile of shares awhile ago?
There have been a lot of signs for quite some time that things were not looking good here. You also keep complaining about how bad management is. So with all these bad signs and bad management you kept holding your shares and taking a bigger and bigger loss. And then you sit here and lecture the board with your warnings and pronouncements of how things will unfold here. Looks like you are not really that good at reading the tea leaves as they say.
In one sentence you say that you are averaging down to lower your cost average so you can sell out at break even when the shareprice gets to $1 and then in the next sentence you say who will make money with this stock the existing shareholders who got screwed or the "Vultures" who get in at these prices. So i guess you are a vulture too as you are also buying at these prices?
Lets cut the b.s once and for all. Investing in stocks involves risk We all know or should know that any money you put into the markets can be lost especially with smaller gold miners like this one who are trying to build a new mine. When you were buying shares at much higher prices did you not take into account that management may screw things up here and their could be delays and cost overruns on the project as happens all the time with these projects?
No you had stars in your eyes imagining all the profits you were going to make once the new mine got into production. Sorry it didnt work out this time. Been there myself many times. If it was so easy we all would be Billionaires.
You also dont seem to have the best reading comprehension skills.
Where in my posts did i say that this company "Will be an 8 to 10 bagger in the next couple years. " I said that the "Potential" here for a possible 8 to 10 bagger seems realistic for this company in a couple years from now. As you should know by now things dont always work out as planned and i am not giving any guarantees. All i am saying is that in my opinion which could easily be wrong their appears to be a good chance for those buying shares at these levels to make a lot of money here in time.
The current market cap. of AR is around $400 million Cdn. A 10 bagger from here would be a market cap of aprox. $4 billion Cdn. Where you come up with a market cap. of $7 billion i dont know.
As for existing producers and their value. Yamana a 1 million ounce producer just got bought out for $6.7 billion US or aprox. $8.3 billion Cdn. AR should have aprox. 400 000 ounces of production in a couple years or aprox. 40% of Yamanas production. All things being equal that would equate to market cap. for AR of aprox. $3.3 billion Cdn. or aprox 8.5 times the current market cap. Seems like my numbers add up quite well.
As for my "Rosy" Cashflow projections. When the new mine scales up to 300 000 ounces with an AISC cost of aprox. $900 that should leave a profit of aprox. $1000 per ounce US x 300 000 ounces equaling aprox. $300 million US per year from the new mine. The existing mines generate aprox. $100 million US per year. Lets be conservative and say that when production drops on those old mines they generate $50 million US add the $300 million US from the new mine and that equals aprox. $350 million US or aprox. $435 million Cdn. in Free Cashflow per year for the company.
Will all this work out and the company make this kind of money in a couple years? I believe there is a good chance that it will happen. Considering that $435 million per year in future potential Free Cashflow is around the current market cap of this company it appears that there is a good potential to make a lot of money with this stock in the future. Even if production costs are higher with the new mine and AR only makes $300 million Cdn. per year in Free cashflow that is still a lot of money for a company with a $400 million market cap.So they dont have to even perform perfectly for the shareprice to go a lot higher.
That is only my opinion and could easily be wrong although i have invested in a lot of gold mining stocks over the years often learning some hard lessons along the way and this one seems to have a lot of potential to do well in the future.
The problem on this board is that there are for good reason a lot of jaded and angry investors who have lost a lot of money here and seem to think that the shareprice can only go down as thats all it has done for what seems like forever. . That can turn around in time and i believe that there is a very good potential for those buying shares at these prices to make a lot of money with this company in the months and years to come.
And i will be one of those people.