RE:Other Analyst CommentsThe LSTK tree is hiding a forest.
1. The 4 LSTKs represent less than 10% of the backlog;
2. The Aecon claims are legitimate and "
substantial" amounts are negotiated for 2 of them;
3. The cumulated losses in the books are conservative and assume no claims will be reimbursed;
Conclusion on LSTKs: It is fair to assume that we will ultimately close the 4 LSTKs at no additional losses considering the legitimacy of the claims and the fact that negotiations are ongoing with "substantial amounts" on the table.
The TTM EBITDA excluding LSTKs (10% of the backlog) was 375m. I should be north of 400m in 2025 which even at a very low multiple of 4.5, puts the valuation at 1.6B for 61.7 m shares or close to 30$ per share (assuming concessions pays the debt).
Finally, Oaktree offers more than a 150m cash injection:
aecon-announces-$150-million-strategic-investment-in-aecon-utilities-group-by-oaktree