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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Aecon Group Inc T.ARE

Alternate Symbol(s):  AEGXF

Aecon Group Inc. is a Canada-based construction and infrastructure development company. The Company delivers integrated solutions to private and public sector clients throughout Canada and other countries. It operates through two segments within the infrastructure development industry: Construction and Concessions. Its Construction segment includes all aspects of the construction of both public... see more

TSX:ARE - Post Discussion

Aecon Group Inc > Globe - just out last night
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Post by Gabriel on Jan 30, 2024 2:37am

Globe - just out last night

Not one reactor but four (4) reactors.

Ontario to announce refurbishment of four reactors at Pickering Plant

MATTHEW MCCLEARN AND JEFF GRAY

Published January 29 2024, 8:05PM

Ontario is proceeding with a massive, multibillion-dollar refurbishment of four aging nuclear reactors at its Pickering power plant east of Toronto, according to two provincial government sources.

The decision will be formally unveiled by Ontario Energy Minister Todd Smith at the facility in Pickering on Tuesday, a senior government source said. This would mark the government’s latest major move to preserve and expand the province’s reactor fleet.

Another government official said the province has approved a $2-billion budget for Ontario Power Generation, the plant’s owner, to complete the necessary engineering and design work and order crucial components, which can require years to manufacture. The Globe and Mail is not naming the sources, because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the decision.

No full cost estimate for the project has been revealed. Refurbishments under way at OPG’s Darlington nuclear plant in Clarington, and at Bruce Power’s station in Tiverton, have cost between $2-billion and more than $3-billion a reactor.

Mr. Smith’s announcement had been expected. In 2022, the province asked OPG to study the feasibility of refurbishing the four Pickering “B” units, which entered service in the mid-1980s and had previously been passed over for refurbishment 15 years ago. Mr. Smith received OPG’s report last summer, but his ministry rebuffed a request from this newspaper to release it under the province’s freedom of information legislation.

The Pickering station, situated on the shore of Lake Ontario about 30 kilometres from downtown Toronto, generates about 15 per cent of Ontario’s power. It also includes the four 1970s-era Pickering “A” reactors, which are not currently being considered for refurbishment. Two have been dormant for decades after an aborted refurbishment, and the remaining two are scheduled to shut down permanently this year.

OPG’s current licence for Pickering B allows its reactors to operate only to the end of this year. OPG has applied to the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, which regulates the industry, for permission to operate them until late 2026. CNSC approval would also be required for a refurbishment.

Refurbishment involves replacing major components to extend reactors’ operating lives by 30 years, although the list of required upgrades varies from station to station. Subo Sinnathamby, OPG’s chief projects officer, told The Globe earlier this month that, if the project were approved, OPG would begin Pickering’s refurbishment in 2028, with the goal of returning its reactors to service by the mid-2030s. Previous refurbishments have unfolded over longer periods.

 

“It is a compressed timeline,” she acknowledged. But she added that this time OPG will benefit from the experience it and its contractors and suppliers gained during previous refurbishments.

Comment by Gabriel on Jan 30, 2024 2:45am
Aecon has been involved in each one of the nuclear projects in Ontario. 2 to 3 billion per reactor are previous costs. So considering these were previous prices, we can estimate 2024-2034 prices at 4B per reactor or 12B over 10 years.   
Comment by Henrye on Jan 30, 2024 11:21am
Good morning Gabriel. This could be massive for Aecon .  However is it possible that this job could be shared with Bird construction as I believe that they are getting their feet wet in Nuclear sector.  Also when in your opinion would the news release be released?
Comment by Gabriel on Jan 30, 2024 11:30am
The source reported in the Globe said today. SNC is firing all cylinders on the news this morning. I sold some SNC.
Comment by Alexcanada on Jan 30, 2024 7:27pm
I think you can't go wrong with both (ARE and ATRL that is). I'm keeping my recently reacquired ATRL shares for a while (target 50-55$) and of course my ARE shares (target 20$+).
Comment by Gabriel on Jan 31, 2024 8:49am
Definitely, but excluding the depleting LSTKs, the enterprise value today of Aecon is selling at ~ 2.5 x 400m EBITDA 2024 while SNC is selling at ~ 9 x 900m EBITDA excluding concessions. I am expecting a severe rmarket correction and recession and I believe Aecon will hold much better with Keynesian economics .. again or increased public spending to support economic activity. Public works spendinf ...more  
Comment by Henrye on Jan 31, 2024 10:41am
Gabriel I would like to bring us back to our recent discussion whereby I suggested a dividend increase and you instead   (Wisely) recommended share buybacks and the more I dive into it the more I conclude how your share buybacks would be the best route to embark on . My assumptions after taking into account all the behind the scenes positive exceptional developments at Aecon over next 11 ...more  
Comment by Gabriel on Jan 31, 2024 10:59am
Thank you for all your messages and all those of the other distinguished members on this board. I can only recommend that you as a long time shareholder write to the board and mention it. This can be done directly or through investor relations. I am doing my part as an owner of about 1.3m shares (over 2%).
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