RE:RE:RE:Deep regret : the divi institution was ( as predicted ) a it was nowhere near 53%, i proved to you that your math was wrong because you were not dividing by the entire principal amount, it was really 16% as serafino stated. of course saving 16% was a good move.
Brioche, you are confusing correlation with causation.
just because something happened at the same time does not mean that was the
cause. gcm initially went up when they declared that dividend.
the previous drop from $6 to $5 was caused by the purchase of goldx using gcm shares. as usually the case with acquisition at premium using shares, the acquiring company share price drops. that drop was caused by acquisition, not dividend. gdxj did not have that acquisition so it did not suffer that drop. plus market fears of funding toro. petro adds some fear. it is not all nightmare 4.4% divi. that acquisition eventually changes from a minus to a plus when they get closer to doubling production.
do the math and add gcm cash balance with wheaton $138 mil gcm will receive. they have plenty of cash, that is why they are giving both a divi and doing buyback. the buybacks they are doing saves them from paying your nightmare 4.4% divi. segovia is increasing production with the 2000 tpd increase and the polymetallic plant will add another $10 mil. that cash they used for capex turns into greater cash generated when those projects are completed. they are not short of cash as you seem to think.
gcm is prone to wild swings and panic selling that can make it insanely undervalued. this is one of those times. eventually segovia production increases in the second half and toro asset doubles production and the share price swings the other way. at that time do your gcm/gdxj comparison and check which performs better.
if you remember, gcm in the past outperformed gdxj and made the tsx30 list of best performing stock the last 3 years. performance changes depending on what time the comparison is made.
Brioche wrote: Invest .... my friend ..-) ... you are mixing everything
For the fun it remind me when we have had a discuss about the 53% interest about the g.notes.. At the end , very few weeks after , when gcm got some good cash in hands , the first thing they made, was to refund the notes before anything else stopping this absurdity .
That said :
1) put on your screen tprff/gdxj
The downtrend ( or the underperformance vs benchmark ) begins at the inception of the monthly divi. Fact.
2) i have never said the underperf was because gold, petro , rates,panic sales....i don't care . I always compare apple to apple. Regarding petro/ colombia for exemple , i just see the smash inflicted by aris.
So petro has little impact in my mind
3) you seems happy with your 0.18 cad gain as divi a y by share while you have lost 4 full cad in value !! from the peak . Hum...pinch me please..
4) divi is lost money for the great part . Perhaps some guys like you reinvest the divi , but the vast majority collect the money and run like the insiders ( except for fino but not at 4% rate) or funds.( as i do)
5) gcm is a growth miner . ×2 or more in the 2 y coming . They have to keep the cash for their growth ( particularly nowadays with the rampant inflation ) And if they have surplus is for reinvesting with repurchases. The money stays INSIDE.
6) we are in the very left side of the scale for the rate of divi . Stupid . We are not Newmont aem or B2B
Dundee Kgc or Newcrest . When u are alone ( i know there is jag too ) in the category ( high div ) , it means you are not at your place.
7)the sum 18 mil cad for annual div is huge. We are told this bring discipline huh... they can instaure the same dicipline with repurchases. Cf my post on abitibi. (7000% for the stock )
Here we want just 100% ...
8) am not crying at all . I just repeat what seems to me logical . I know fino has its ears sometimes here. If it can help to change its view , i will be very happy.
9) gcm is stupidly undervalued.it means something is wrong till now . I just put on line what i thing wrong with simple facts.
Gl