RE:RE:RE:Not out of the woods just yet!Not that concerned with today's trade, here's why. There was a 2.9 million share block at $3.10 then two 250k share blocks a few minutes later. Char volume looks like a teenage boy seeing his first naked woman. 3.4 million shares went from an eager seller to new buyers that are institutions. Now Aris doesn't have the overhang of those shares being dripped into the bid for a month or more, putting pressure on the stock. More than likely the new institions are long term buy and hold. They won't be able to easily cash in for a stock with low daily average volume. This is another positive.
VanEck runs ETF's GDX and GDXJ. A month from now they are going to rebalance both. GDXJ is supposed to be a junior gold producer ETF but they have large cap stocks in there. One name that will be deleted will be Yamana after AEM/PAAS carve them up via buyout others look to be not satisfying minimum requirements.
The criteria for inclusion in GDXJ is 1) Market Cap > US$150 million (Aris - check). 2) Free Float > 10% (Aris - check) and 3) Average Daily Volume > 250,000 shares (Aris - not checked but close). and, 4) Average Daily Notional > US$1 million for past three months (Aris - not checked). Today's trade was about US$7 million.
The announcement will be make December 9th and included in the GDXJ December 16th. I should point out the rebalancing is quarterly. Aris may not get in December, but March it could have a real shot. The average exposure is 4.4% stake for each miner in the index per RBC Capital Markets. That means an Aris inclusion can result in the buying of 6.1 million shares.