Question is their 2023 Plan Real
In 2022 Sunrise was a capex project for 80 million dollars, now its capex costs have gone up to 100 million, does they really have approval to build in in 2023?
If they don't build it then they will not add the 80 Mmcf associated with it, and the 13,000 boe add in 2024.
Attachie no green light there, just some rusting pipe in some field up there in NE BC. A lot of Capex spent here with zero production.
All the extra wells they have in the plan for 2023, Rebuild NE BC production, well do they really have the well licenses for that or is that based on the same hope and prayer that did not materialize in 2022.
Arx is prepared to spend a ton of money on water handling to save 50 cents a boe in Kakwa, but what about an increase in the number of wells and production target of 221,000 boe. So the play can get back to where it use to be.
What about all these other Tier1 montney plays like Wapiti that have way better land footprint, and opportunity than Sunrise, any capital for these projects?
I hope 2023 is not another year where they thumb this nose at Kakwa the number one revenue generating play, with the largest netbacks in ARX entire portfolio. I am hoping we see some increased production number from Kakwa because we know that NE BC is in the dumpers with treaty8 issues.
So really how much of the 2023 budget is actionable today? my guess is not much.
IMHO