ARC Resources Ltd T.ARX

Question is their 2023 Plan Real

[MyHoneyPot]

In 2022 Sunrise was a capex project for 80 million dollars, now its capex costs have gone up to 100 million, does they really have approval to build in in 2023?

If they don't build it then they will not add the 80 Mmcf associated with it, and the 13,000 boe add in 2024.

Attachie no green light there, just some rusting pipe in some field up there in NE BC. A lot of Capex spent here with zero production. 

All the extra wells they have in the plan for 2023, Rebuild NE BC production, well do they really have the well licenses for that or is that based on the same hope and prayer that did not materialize in 2022.

Arx is prepared to spend a ton of money on water handling to save 50 cents a boe in Kakwa, but what about an increase in the number of wells and production target of 221,000 boe. So the play can get back to where it use to be. 

What about all these other Tier1 montney plays like Wapiti that have way better land footprint, and opportunity than Sunrise, any capital for these projects?

I hope 2023 is not another year where they thumb this nose at Kakwa the number one revenue generating play, with the largest netbacks in ARX entire portfolio. I am hoping we see some increased production number from Kakwa because we know that NE BC is in the dumpers with treaty8 issues. 

So really how much of the 2023 budget is actionable today? my guess is not much. 


IMHO

[GunnerG]

fire it off to investor relations.  You don't seem to know what is going on.  Nothing but spec on your part. Have a great weekend.

[canne]

There is a news release dated Nov 4 2021 stating ARX has signed a long term gas supply agreement with a "LNG Canada participant" to supply 150mmcf/day from Sunshine whenever that facility becomes operational. I don't understand why they specify Sunshine but it may be that it is mostly dry gas. This contract would require a good deal of extra production and it has to come from

[Quintessential1]

Look at you trying to make too much sense using common sense.  Well done Long-term Gas Supply Agreement — ARC has entered into a long-term gas supply agreement to deliver approximately 150 MMcf per day of natural gas from ARC's Sunrise facility to an LNG Canada participant. The agreement will commence with the start-up of LNG Canada.  It could be that TC energy has

[MyHoneyPot]

Whatever guys, Sunrise has been on the books for years, and they don't build it year after year, so i assume it is entangled in treaty8 issues. They can get the first nations to sanction the project.  So we will see if ARX can actually build sunrise or not this year. I don't think there has been any breakthrough on the first nations agreements yet, correct me if there has. 

[Quintessential1]

Build it?  Sunrise produces 273 MMCF/day  https://www.arcresources.com/what-we-do/our-operations/sunrise/ They are expanding it. GLTA Longs

[MyHoneyPot]

Very small postage stamp play, roughly 35 sections of land. The netbacks for dry gas are 2.6 boe dry gas = 1 boe produced at Kakwa. Really Kakwa has historically produced 41,000 boe more than it does today, if that production was restored it would represet more than twice the current cashflow from sunrise.  Sunrise is so small, it is hardly worth getting excited about. In terms of CF