RE:RE:RE:PurgatoryI think you may be incorrect in your assumptions here too:
There is no room for a dividend increase with the capital requirements of Attachie and current commodity prices, one of managements best moves is keeping the dividend in the goldilocks zone of not being so high that they have to cut it when commodities decline, and just being high enough to provide investors a nice bit of income. IMHO. With 5% FCF ARX will have roughly $590 million in spreading around cash.
With the share float at 600 million that leaves about $.98 per share.
More than enough for the promised 10% increase to the dividend.
At about $.75 per share and a roughly 3.75% yield that still leaves ARX in a "goldilocks zone"
Leaving over $100 million plus FCF on the table for debt repayment or saving for debt repayment or whatever the smart pencils choose to do with it...maybe even more buybacks.
I will be the first to admit that I want a big divy increase to around a $1 a share but knowing this conservative management and the way commodity prices are trading it probably won't happen even though it would only represent 5ish% yield at current share prices but I won't be that disppointed if it does not happen as this management seems to know best.
I will be very disappointed if they do not increase the dividend by the 10% they promised.
GLTY and ALL ARX BULLS
SideshowBob1 wrote: ARX 1 year performance: 11.5% (including dividends)
VOO 1 year performance: +25.46% (including dividends)
I call that performance dismal in comparison. And its being compared because thats the universal benchmark for equity performance all investors should be comparing all their holdings to. If 80% of hedge funds can't beat the S&P500, what chance does the average stockhouse bull board poster have?
You indirectly highlight my point. These other names mentioned have higher FCF multiples after getting beat up last year. Does that make them more attractive for investment than ARX? Its a question that has two answers.
A) Yes, they are fundamentally cheaper and the market will rerate their valuation in due time.
B) No, ARX deserves a higher multiple due to having better management, having higher quality assets, and has a higher margin of safety for investors.
There is no room for a dividend increase with the capital requirements of Attachie and current commodity prices, one of managements best moves is keeping the dividend in the goldilocks zone of not being so high that they have to cut it when commodities decline, and just being high enough to provide investors a nice bit of income. IMHO.
Agreed there are much worse places to be, appreciate the reply. Interested to see if Canadian large caps can cook up any shale mega deals in 2024 following suit from the US majors. Good luck bulls, Happy New Year!