ARC Resources Ltd T.ARX

Purgatory

[SideshowBob1]

2024 FCF yields at strip ~ $71.4WTI, $2.04 AECO, $11.07TTF,  -$15.5WCS diff & $1.32 USD/CAD
ARX 5.0%
WCP 6.5%
CPG 13.5%
BTE 14.7%
VET 17.4%
Reference: Gurgen Ayvazyan, via X.

ARX is in that place where you dont want to be. Maybe its seasonality and oil price is about to start trending up. Another way of saying "just ONE MORE OIL BOOM" pretty sure we've all spent WAY too much time in this camp. How much of your net worth are you going to stake on Macro hopes and dreams? 

ARX remains a well run, solid profitable business, with a moderately compelling valuation. After a comparatively dismal year vs the S&P500 in 2023, being bullish energy in 2024 is clearly a contrarian view.  My vote is energy has a tough year, energy remains cheap as USA pulls all stops to keep inflation in check during the election cycle.  Perma bulls continue to bang the table crying for fundamental driven higher prices. Contrarians do well during capitulation. But right now its somewhere between capitulation and value trap.

[Quintessential1]

Interesting analysis. I had to have a look to compare. Based on the referenced chart there appear to be weird anomolies. BTE does indeed appear to have (based on GA's chart) 14.7% FCF yield in 2024E They did however have an abysmal 2023 losing 23% of their share price. You can compare that to any index you want and it doesn't look good. OBE however (not included in the post) is at the

[SideshowBob1]

ARX 1 year performance: 11.5% (including dividends) VOO 1 year performance: +25.46% (including dividends) I call that performance dismal in comparison. And its being compared because thats the universal benchmark for equity performance all investors should be comparing all their holdings to. If 80% of hedge funds can't beat the S&P500, what chance does the average stockhouse bull board

[Quintessential1]

Market Summary > ARC Resources Ltd 19.67 CAD+3.44 (21.20%)past year Dec 29, 4:00p.m. EST • Div yield 3.46% https://www.google.com/search?q=arx+energy+stock+tsx&rlz=1C1CHBF_enCA874CA874&oq=arx&gs_lcrp

[SideshowBob1]

Splitting days at year end of last year is accounting for our chart differences. Dec 29 18.09 vs 16.23 on Jan 3. Hoping we dont repeat this performace this week. 

[Quintessential1]

I am just copying and pasting the chart on google.  Now. GLTA ARX BULLS

[Trapped]

Verified, Quint. Not quite sure why some people choose to trash perfectly good companies. I'll take a 20+percent one-year gain with a proven performer all day long over the next shiny object. Some of these folks would be better off in meme stonks or NFTs.  Cheers and GLTA ARX Bulls. 

[Quintessential1]

I think you may be incorrect in your assumptions here too: There is no room for a dividend increase with the capital requirements of Attachie and current commodity prices, one of managements best moves is keeping the dividend in the goldilocks zone of not being so high that they have to cut it when commodities decline, and just being high enough to provide investors a nice bit of income. IMHO

[SideshowBob1]

A 10% dividend increase is little more than a rounding error, call it a 2 cent increase per quarter.  Have you noticed that ARX likes to swing 50 cents on any given day? Sure, give us an extra 8 cents a year, hell if they cant do that without breaking the bank we are in the wrong business. But surely that cant be a threshold that makes a guy 'very disappointed' if it doesnt come

[Trapped]

I'd rather have a 3 - 4 % dividend that is truly sustainable than a higher yield that gets cut at the first sign of trouble for the industry. Quality matters and this year will separate the long-term leaders from the garbage. 

[Quintessential1]

A 10% "rounding error" would explain your "dismal" math. Speaking of fearfull Mr. Buffet, 10% equates to 6.8 cents per year which is more than ARX paid during the pandemic so I'll take it and be very disappointed if I don't get it. (993) ••• Comment by Quintessential1on Jan 01, 2024 5:16pm 67 Views 

[Trapped]

If you're a balanced investor who's diversified across asset classes and sectors, companies like ARX will remain exactly where you should be for the long term in my opinion: -Extremely well-run -Conservative bias -Investment-grade balance sheet -Low debt -Growing dividend -Shrinking share count -Astute gas marketing -Diversified property mix -Organic growth profile Sounds pretty good to