RE:RE:The Gringo's last stand......Some very good comments rebuttals Mr. SideshowBob, so please let me continue this informative discussion with a few points of my own. Just a bit of disclosure, i don't work in the O&G and i don't live in Alberta, so i don't know ALL the ins & outs of what's really going on behind the scenes or in people's minds in that art of the world. Taking this fact into consideration, i do however possess GREAT knowledge of the industry itself and some vast & long xp with it, so i do know a thing or two about it and my track record has been fairly accurate & excellent!
So a few points of my own, regarding the comments you made AND based on that knowledge & XP.
SideshowBob1 wrote:
"Maybe first nations will end up owning majority stakes, diversity equity and inclusion programs and ESG departments consuming 1/2 of capex by 2030.."
At the rate your country is moving to the EXTREME left ( fyi..most of Canada is already there but let's move on!) and as the majority of the population is converted (this already the case but lets continue!) towards their crazy agenda & ideas, the so called First Nations (of which i have a lot to say about but won't waste any time now on useless parasitic groups like them so i can remain on point) will most likely re-OWN most of your country or at least the crtiical areas needed for country to function properely. The transfer of Nanavut case in point, is only the beginning if guys like Trudope remain in power......
"This Cheveron Duvernay area... I think its in Fox Creek and Fox Creek - SUCKS."
I'm not 100% sure or not if this is indeed the exact area that Chevron is divesting in Duvernay. As i don't follow Chevron's activity in this area too closely, i cannot confirm this statement to be accurate or not. Maybe someone else who is in the industry and/or lives in Alberta and is familiar with the geography can confirm.
As for it "sucking", this is a pretty broad & vague statement, so let me ask in what way does it suck? Does it "suck" because the work conditions in the area are horrid & difficult OR does it suck because in terms of quality of resource it's regarded as inferior to other places? Or maybe both are true? The Duvernay formation is usually a decent area in terms of drilling & resource, so this is somewhat of a "surprise" to me that it "sucks". But i can fully understand that not all drilling areas in the Duvernay are created equal, if this is the case. So please let us know.....if you know...that is
"WhiteCap blew their wad and took their medicine on the XTO deal, very rich valuation, I'd be very surprised if they made a move on it"
If i'm not mistaken the XTO deal was over two years ago, so it has been sometime since. I don't recall what the metrics of the deal were, so i would have to go back & recheck if Whitecap overpaid for those assets or not ....at that time. It's all about perspective right?.......Yhings are never straight forward!
Whether you agree or not on whether Wcp can or should make a move on the Chevron's Canadian assets, the One thing you need to understand is the following. Guys like Whitecap really have no OTHER choice IF they wish to "keep up" with not only their peers to compete but on the global North American scene as well. Imo, at the very lest they need to consider the opportunity and if it is worth their time, effort & resources. They have the tools & means to do it, so it shouldn't be too much of an issue for them. The alternative is less attractive and involves long & difficult M&A negotioations.
"Does Arc want this area? Not likely. Do they want the production and the drilling inventory? Very hard to say. Management is much too slick to overpay for this area, the price MUST be right."
I'll agree with the second part of your statement that Arc mgmt is slick, but don't over-estimate their capabilities or options. Right now, there are VERY slim pickings in the Canadian O&G sector when it comes to "accretive" or fairly pirces assets. So Arc mgmt as everyone else HAS TO consdier all opportunities that come their way or make themselves available. Like this opportunistic Chevron divestiture.
Imo, Arc will probably be ONE of the remaining 12 entities in the Canadian O&G sector to survive in the next decade or two. So if they wish to remain on that track, they need another BIG acquisition soon. Is this the ideal acquisition for Arc & does this Chevron sale qualify? No .....not fully... but its better IF nothing else is available or priced right! And i'll be honest here, IF Whitecap is was up for sale themselves, at the price the compamny is trading right now......Whitecap wouls be the IDEAL acquisition for Arc......Big production, Big infrastucture & cheap! Right up Arc's Ally!
"This deal smells like a CNRL scoop, they love picking up cigars off the sidewalk to try to squeeze a few more puffs out of them."
Doubtful imo.....I think Canadian UnNatural is involved somehow but not with the Duvernay assets. Imo, i bleieve CNRL & Chevron have already setup another side deal to take something else from Chevron. If i'm not mistaken, i think the Chevron STILL has a interest in the Athabasca project right? I believe they still do own part of the Oil Sands asset. So, if that's the case, i think CNRL would prefer to make a move on that (which i'm sure has already been discussed & deal is probably on its way as well) to consolidate its position THERE rather than take the Duvernay properties. That's my take on all this!
"This is NOT a 'gift from heaven' - companies dont sell those. This is a dirty cigar on the sidewalk"
Whether this is a gift from heaven or not is a matter of perspective and WHO it concerns. I beleive it is .....for some. But what i do know for sure is WHY Chevron is bailing from Canada. And there numerous reasons for this apart from the obvious which is a VERY hostile & uneconomic environment. I could list ALL the reasons for you here and explain, but that would take too much of my time, time i don't have.
So to keep it short, all i'll say is this. A "certain" fellow with Orange hair & who's name starts with capital T & rhymes with HUMP is about to retake his throne, which will result in him implementing certain policies which will have the net effect similar to throwing the Canadian O&G sector the nastiest curveball ever invented, which will turn it completely on its head & put in total chaos!
That's WHY Chevron is selling.....among many OTHER reaosns.....
GLTA