ARC Resources Ltd T.ARX

Seven Million Shares - 1% - 10-20 cents a share added value

[MyHoneyPot]

A Company buyback of 7 million shares should equate to 1% of the stock and a 10 cents a share increase if you value the company at $10 dollars a share, and as 20 cent a share increase if you value the company at 20 dollars, we have analysts like BMO that have a price target of $21.85 per share like BMO (RANDY OLLENBERGER)

So a buyback of 70 million shares should add between 1-2 dollars per unit in value, with all things remaining as they are. 

It we are getting a 4% dividend, and 10-20% share appreciation based on the current share value that is great. (Based on the buyback)

ARC SHares are work $20 dollars a share is my Thesis, minus the management discount.

Attachie in perspective, will cost shareholders 1-2 dollars a share until it produces meaningful FCF. (4-5 years from now)

So a great point was brought up here by shaleguy and my other oil executive friends have told me, north of Kakwa its starts getting sour and the costs start going up. 

Last quarter even with under investment Kakwa was 53% or arc production 85% of their condensate and 81% of their NGL's this is where all the FCF is coming from, don't kid yourselfs. 

ARC is a steal that these prices and i bought 5,000 more share this morning, The investor return is better with share buybacks than anything else they could do.

It sounds like Kakwa is going to get a big push in Q2 and they will send the stock soaring.

Today is a major buying opportunity.

IMHO 

[uncutgems]

umm no. remember Paramount? they sold their Kakwa River Deep Cut SOUR gas processing plant to Pembina. Note the word "sour"? They also sold their KAKWA property to 7g. And 7g inherited a 20 year take or pay contract with Pembina to keep that SOUR GAS plant filled. Costs are high at Kakwa.  The gas is sour and operating costs are high. That's straight from the "man"

[MyHoneyPot]

The costs can be high, however if you have 53% liquids like they do at Karr, and 88% of those liquids are condensate. Kakwa is a money machine, and the 43,000 boe of production will generate over 300 million in FCF. POU: Karr is one of the best plays in the montney, but Kakwa is better becasue it is south, and it is sweet, shaleguy confirmed that for you.  Look a POU presentiion that post

[uncutgems]

I think for myself. if kakwa is sweet why did Paramount spend $500m on a deep cut SOUR gas processing plant to process the gas prodcued on the land POU sold to 7g? 7g burned hundreds of millions of $$ growing production at Kakwa, and the only way they could generate free cash flow was to STOP GROWING at kakwa---to slam on the brakes. 7g or arx have yet to prove that property can grow production

[uncutgems]

Pembina Pipeline Corporation Announces Acquisition of Strategic Midstream Assets for $556 Million and a Dividend Increase CALGARY, March 17, 2016 /CNW/ - Pembina Pipeline Corporation ("Pembina" or "the Company") (TSX: PPL; NYSE: PBA) is pleased to announce that it has entered into agreements to acquire certain sour natural gas processing assets (the "

[MyHoneyPot]

Kakwa is a lot futher south, and the more north you go, it gets a lot more sour. IMHO

[Shaleguy]

Uncut. The demarcation of sweet and sour north of Kakwa is a deep basement fault running more or less in alignment with the Cutbank River. NVA lands are about 6 percent while Sinopec has Wells up to 12 percent. POU s plant was a disaster and took over two and a half years to complete. partially due to really bad engineering and restarting the construction for sour gas The price paid by PPL doesn

[Shaleguy]

Uncut. The demarcation of sweet and sour north of Kakwa is a deep basement fault running more or less in alignment with the Cutbank River. NVA lands are about 6 percent while Sinopec has Wells up to 12 percent. POU s plant was a disaster and took over two and a half years to complete. partially due to really bad engineering and restarting the construction for sour gas The price paid by PPL doesn

[uncutgems]

shaleguy thanks for your input on this. that explains a lot and I appreciate the technical details. I followed POU during the building of that plant and I remember it was one nightmare after another. And they took on huge debt to build it. I understand arx inherited the take or pay and it may not even be an ideal gas plant for their production. Unfortunate, but in the scheme of things not the end

[Shaleguy]

Thanks uncut. A couple of other thoughts about the Karr plant. Firstly, the engineering company had never built a plant like this before. Whereas VII struggled in the early days of production, we learned very quickly that the huge volume of Condy had to be separated in the field, hence the "invention" of the super pad. POU basically pre built the Karr plant ahead of production, and didn&

[uncutgems]

thanks for the detailed background SG. very helpful. regards