RE:RE:RE:RE:MarketsSigh...
I wish I hadn't looked into Cassava Sciences, because now I'm very jealous of what they were able to achieve compared to Antibe.
Cassava was able to get their valuation to over $1 billion on
interim phase 2 data (not even the final results yet..). Antibe needs to step up their game..
MrMugsy wrote: Well said GameChanger. Nothing to argue there.
What Dan has to battle every day of his ATE life is the fact that until recently, we've been cash poor. Without money, you can't move very quickly. If you're not moving very quickly, you're certainly not moving opportunities in parallel.
So ... if you want to argue "against" Dan, you're either complaining about what he did to make us cash poor ... or ... you're aguing why he didn't get us to a cash-rich position sooner. Anyway, that's really not what I wanted to say but it leads me into my prediciton.
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Going forward ...
Now that we have the amalgamation under our belt (May 31) ... we know that Dan signalled that amalgamation will allow for negotiations to accelerate. I'd look at that as a hint (maybe).
The only thing that's going to move the share price now (in a meaningful way) is to strike a bigger deal for OTENA. That's the focus. Get a big OTENA deal(s) and drive the share price into the P3 and into a NASDAQ in the fall.
So ... what do you do with the time from now until P3 starts (aside from all the prep. work for OTENA)? You develop drugs and you show your NASDAQ investors (and present/future OTENA partners) the potential value of those drugs. Every new drug and every new study is going to give H2S credibility as investors/potential investors review the P2A/B data for OTENA and say ... "Ya, this H2S stuff is awesome. I'm in!"
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As an example, I was just looking at Cassava Sciences and what happened to their stock after a P2 Simufilam study. They showed a 10% mean improvement in cognitive performance from baseline out to 6 months of use. We don't know if that improvement continues or if there's a drop-off as they head to 9 months and beyond.
Whatever ... If I were to bet ... and I like to bet ... I'd say we can do better with H2S.
On the NASDAQ, Cassava's Simufilam Phase 2 moved their valuation from $326M to $1920M. The jump in value was $1590M (now at steady-state after all the share price fluctuations). That's one drug (in an area where I'm sure we can compete) and then add all the other drugs we need to move forward (including OTENA).
What I'm saying is ... we need cash (Dan's sin of not having any) ... lots of it ... to move these opportunities forward and to get the NASDAQ crowd excited. We're not going to be acquired just yet because we're not there on the valuation side. We need to get our value up. Best way to do that ... is to partner on OTENA and use the cash to show the NASDAQ how well our pipeline is coming along - development updates on 352, 340, IBD, Lung Inflammation, AD, etc...
Then ... only then ... should we be entertaining the idea of being acquired ... unless ... someone makes us an offer we simply can't refuse. Until that day ... we have to create the interest in the H2S IP.
That's my guess ... sticking to it.