RE:RE:RE:FCF at 100$ OILIt'll be interesting to see how things play out on the US side. At current prices, it should be be quite attractive for the shale producers to hedge and start drilling again. Strip prices for the next 12 months out are basically all solidly above $60.
That being said, I guess the Texas deep freeze bought us some additional time to draw down inventories. Overall US oil rig counts were only up by 1 last week, though the permian did see an increase by 3.
ManitobaCanuck wrote: Chris007 wrote: Just some rough calculations, looking at their latest news release and March presentation
Assuming unhedged, breakeven is 45 WTI, with each $5 increment provide approx. 70 million in cash flow
100-45=55
55/5 = 11
11 x 70,000,000 = 770,000,000 cash flow
less approx 100,000,000 in projected capex (as per the news release...nutall's model assumes 80 mill in capex)
so, approx 670 mill FCF at 100 WTI
That being said, where did you read about Goldman predicting $100 oil...all i've seen is them predicting $80 brent for Q3
ManitobaCanuck wrote: He everyone
We have calcualted this companies FCF at 70$/80$ Oil .
With the new Goldman Sachs target of 100$ Oil , how much do u think their FCF will be ?
Hey Chris you are correct GS is predicting 80$ Brent , It JP Morgan guy Malek someone prediciting 100$ Oil . these guys keep revising their target and I hope GS will revise a 100$ target once we open up and summer starts . I have seen Lumber hit lifetime highs due to shortgage. Its also a commodity which is flexible depending on how much you extract from the forests . A similar shortage could see oil spike upto 100$ and in worst case scenario we can cross previous lifetime high of 147 . Personally I feel we should easily hit 120$ in Oil as economies open and rebuild .
This is not a new target and we have visited 100-120$ oil and survived