My takeIts a imperfect deal in an imperfect world. No one is in love with the deal they just made, but it does put them in a better financial place TODAY. Down the road it may hurt them, but this makes them stronger for the REFI, which is the most important issue to deal with.
They could always hedge out the WCS/WTI spreads which would protect them and offset the protection they gave up.
Line capacity is increasing, so this should help narrow the spread, especially when TMX opens.
Also who knows when TMX will open, expect delays. Sometimes a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush.
With the unrestricted cash, $265ml as of yesterday, they could make a big dent in reducing the $400ml coming due. If they get better terms on the REFI, this could further reduce restricted cash and more importantly limit their hedging to 25% or less. Remember $5 increase in crude = $70ml unhedged.
FCF is running about $25-28ml/q, so they should be over $300ml in unrestricted cash by year-end.
Assuming $100ml FCF in 2022, they could easily buyback 10% of their shares easily, initiate a 5-10% dividend and reduce their debt.