RE:RE:RE:RE:My takeThis is the simple truth. ATH has a high profitability floor. They don't make any money at $55. They have meagre profits at current strip, but not enough to sustain or grow the business. If oil averaged $60-$65, the share price would grind slowly down until someone mercifully bought them out for pennies.
On the other hand, above $65, things start to get interesting. And it's not linear. The gravy train starts rolling above $70, and sustained prices above $75, the door opens up as it gives them an opportunity to get the balance sheet under control, keep the banks at bay, and grow the business.
So negative sentiment on ATH is more than appropriate when WTI falls from $75 to $62. It doesn't sound like much, but to ATH, it takes them out of thrive mode and into survive mode.
Indeed, it all comes down to the price of oil.
EstevanOutsider wrote: They are hedging 50% of their volumes. At $4 aeco and $60 they wont have that much FCF. Athabasca needs a better oil price otherwise survival will be meager, assuming they do.