RE:RE:RE:TDThey are just saying that ATH has had a great run and is now overvalued relative to peers. So in other words, there are better places for capital despite it continuting to be a good company.
However, I'm not sure about the latter. The assets are very good. Heavy oil discount narrrowing is already priced in for months, but retail seems to like this narrative still.
The problem I have is that management gives themselves too many shares in compensation. The total compensation package is way out of line compared to other O&G explorers. It's a lot of money and much of it in newly issued shares. Most of the shares that were bought back with hard earned FCF last year that investors had to take all the market/oil risk to receive were just handed back out again to management and buddies on the board. So ATH seems to be an opportunity for these guys to funnel the company's FCF into their bank accounts under the scheme share based compensation.
To become an investor in ATH, I would have to see this share based compensation reduced to industry standard levels, and instead a large dividend paid out with the FCF which I am taking all the risk to earn. The exec team and board members collecting free shares in addition to their handsome salary each year aren't taking any risk.
newtonboy wrote: This is the part that gets me. Talk about turning a positive into a negative! No doubt that TD is providing lip service for some major clients to hold down the gains. chances are ATH does not do their banking with TD.
"Although we consider the Leismer expansion to 40mbbl/d highly economic and
positive in the long term, it diminishes near-term FCF available for shareholder capital returns."