Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

Broker Upgrades - Eventually

[indoubtgetout]

With Western Canada Select (WCS) solidly over $40, ATH's cash flow will be on fire. Debt not an issue at current WCS levels. With the CADUSD up over 10% over the last year, the debt value has gone down by a similar amount. There are no debt covenants on the 2022 notes and currently redeemable at par. Should WCS continue to stay above $40, ATH could refinance this 10% at much lower interest rates. ATH has huge undeveloped land opportunities and with a potential NAV of over $5/share of PP reserves, ATH is ready to rocked much much higher. Despite the naysayers and all those that have abandoned ATH over the last year, ATH is read to shine again there will be a stampede to get back into this one - if it is not taken out by Equinor or someone else sometime 1H 2021. Equinor owns just under 20% or ATH and they really don't need to sell to raise $25 million - what good does $25 million do for a $62 billion market cap?? So, they are holders and at a minimum, potential partners with someone that wants to exploit ATH. ATH could be a fast 10 bagger. Look at it this way, if Gannett (GCI) can be up nearly 8X from its low with a business model far less profitable and a balance sheet way way worse, why can't ATH be $4.00?? This risky stock market is getting picky and a mad rush to value is underway. ATH is a no brainer!!

[bosstrade]

Agree, somewhat. Anything under $2 is a steal for a takeover, with the cash they have and generate at theses prices debt is repaid quickly. That means all the assets are free and clear in short order leaving a cash cow with long life reserves. Big Oil companies know this. So I imagine there is a deal already in place. Shorts left for a reason. 

[ThunderLips1]

Have u been following any of the other M and A in the oil industry. Not much premium being paid so maybe they get bought for 25 cents. 

[ManitobaCanuck]

Agree , not much of a premium being paid.Few questions though 1) Would the smart Norwegians Equinor sell their 20% stake for pennies on the dollar ,I understand they took it at 2$ So I guess it will most likely be a merger rather than a buyout with stock offered for stock. Who knows one of the big boys might take a bite ,Debt is cheap for them and they could refinance the debt at lesser rates

[Chris007]

The Norwegians are in at at $1.47 (100 million shares were issued to cover $147 million of that asset sale) Whether they would take a lowball deal or not remains to be seen. They certainly have already taken a lowball deal to divest the oil sands assets to ATH. They originally bought those assets for over 2 billion, a decade earlier and that doesn't include the money they sunk in to develop

[bosstrade]

Every institution and fund sold 100%. Check out Morningstar info on funds and institutions and they all sold 100% of shares. Coincidence? No. https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/report/stocks/ownership.aspx?t=0P0000NOGC

[indoubtgetout]

Hey, can you share the link to the news release that supports your comment about Brookfiled offering 21.5 cents for ATH?   I can't find anything of the sort....

[bosstrade]

BPY not ATH

[filefish]

Ok, I will add to everyones speculation. ATH needs to deal with the debt. My understanding from conversation with Management is that the RBL loan (which they are currently maxed out on)  is what is hanging up the market purchases of the Bank Notes. A positive write up in the value of their reserves could result in their RBL loan to be increased ( now 42m , was 120m) which could allow them