Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

RBC Catalysts for Jul 28

[ComradeKomissar]

They expect refi update. I expect they will say "next couple of months" again.

[Tartar3]

I hope it's in the next few months, make more $$$, get better terms, wti just crossed $60 in Feb, i'd like them to give it until the Nov qtr or after before the refi is done, wti should stay above $60 until next year, you can service your debt as long as your making $$$, if they pay down half of the debt and refi the rest next year at better terms, it'll still be a buy at $2, if I was

[mlcb2525]

If so, they need to get a new management team. The longer they wait the more risk. I do not think the benefit of trying to shave a few basis points off the loan is justified, given the potential risk. I personally think that oil will be in the $75-$85 buck range at some poin this year. However, with the recent lack of vaccine pickup in the USA & Europe and increases in new variant infections

[Nothingmatters]

I dont think oil is going back in the 60's if opec follows the line...

[Nothingmatters]

However, I do believe they should refinance in this quarter...

[Eigen337]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Tartar3]

  it's not just the shaving of a few basis points, it's the structure and terms of the entire deal that will shape the future of ATH, rushing to do a deal would be a mistake, imo, at this point I don't thimk they can get a better deal from what they have today, they have yet to cash in on the elevated oil prices, although the next 6 months at these prices will be a boon for the

[Nothingmatters]

If they dont refinance, or if there is even an inkling of misfeance, there would be a class action law suit against these mofos..

[Chris007]

Shareholder class action lawsuits are not at all common for Canada-listed stocks...US or Dual listed on the other hand, pretty common place (atleast those so-called investigation announcements from various ambulance-chasing lawfirms) That being said, sooner refinancing goes through, the better, since it will remove alot of uncertainty.

[Tartar3]

Hate to drag this out so close to earnings but thought experiments are interesting, however, WTI above $60 removed most of the refi uncertainty away from ATH, it's all a matter of the terms and structure of the deal at the point, if announced tomorrow, I believe the stock may sell off if big investors don't like the terms and structure of the deal, at these oil prices what junk bond

[Chris007]

Fact of the matter is, no one likes waiting on edge for a last minute refinance...hence the fact that alot of companies are redeeming old debt and issuing new debt (even willing to pay a modest penalty to do so)....and we're seeing this for debt that is literally several years away from maturity in the case of ATH, the current notes mature in FEB 22 (a little over half a year away)...so yeah,

[Eigen337]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[filefish]

[masfortuna]

BINGO! If they could have already, they would have already. Yes strip prices are very favourable BUT if the market gets a cold OR we get another covid variant that will force us to shut our economy down, the price of oil WILL drop.  So "yes" they should have already gotten it done BUT, something is stopping them :) IMHO

[fellowship]

https://www.atha.com/uploads/AOC_Corporate_Presentation_July_2021_TD_Conference.pdf page 4. Status: Refinance  2L Notes (to be  completed)

[Tartar3]

Thank you, you made my point for me, NVA stock price saw no appreciable stock price impact from their refi, neither will ATH, as I said before it's in the price already, pretty good analysis I would say, yes they need to refi, but the price bump has happened already, so what's the hurry, thanks for the proof, although i know you didn't mean to do it, but thanks for your support anyways

[ComradeKomissar]

Don't think so...there's another 50%-100% to this at current valuation.  

[Tartar3]

Make no mistake I'm very bullish on this stock, the service that I follow values ATH @ $3.63cdn, sounds way off today but I buy it, but it'll take another year or so @$65 oil or average prices for the next year or so, and I think we'll get it, despite Cramer calling the top for oil prices today, as I said in one of my prior post, ATH only needs oil to avg +60 for the next year or so